Ahead of the Bell: Durable Goods

WASHINGTON - Orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket durable goods are expected to decline for a second straight month.

The consensus view of Wall Street economists surveyed by Thomson/IFR was that orders for durable goods, items expected to last at least three years, declined by 1.5 percent in September following a steeper 4.5 percent drop in August. The Commerce Department is scheduled to report the actual figure at 8:30 a.m. EDT Wednesday.

The August decline had been the biggest since January and reflected the fact that demand for both airplanes and autos fell sharply.

Economists are looking for more weakness in the manufacturing sector because they believe the overall economy has fallen into a recession, pushed over the edge by the worst financial crisis to hit in seven decades.

They are looking for overall economic growth, as measured by the gross domestic product, to have fallen by 0.5 percent in the July-September period, a figure that will be reported on Thursday. That weakness is expected to take a toll on the manufacturing sector, which will also be hit by spreading weakness overseas, cutting into demand for U.S. exports. Export sales had been one of the few bright spots for the economy this year.

The view of many analysts is that the country could experience as many as three consecutive quarters of negative growth, a period that they believe will push the unemployment rate up to 8 percent. The jobless rate is currently at 6.1 percent with employers slashing payrolls every month this year.

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