US Economy and Spending Fall, Signaling a Recession

The US economy shrank during the summer, while consumer spending dropped by the largest amount in 28 years, the strongest signals yet that the widely predicted recession has already begun.

The Commerce Department reported that the gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic health, fell at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the July-September period, a significant slowdown after growth of 2.8 percent in the prior quarter.

The spring activity had been boosted by the $168 billion economic stimulus program, but the economy ran into a wall in the summer as the mass mailings of stimulus checks ended and consumer confidence was shaken by the upheavals on global markets.

Consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of the economy, also fell sharply during the third quarter.

Many analysts believe the GDP will decline in the current October-December period by an even larger amount and are forecasting a negative GDP figure in the first three months of next year.

The classic definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP.

The National Bureau of Economic Research, which is the official arbiter of recessions in this country, has not said when it will make its determination of whether the country has entered a recession.

Meanwhile, the Labor Department reported Thursday that applications for unemployment benefits remained at an elevated level last week, another sign of the economy's struggles.

The number of laid-off workers filing new claims totaled 479,000, the same as the previous week, disappointing analysts who had expected a small drop.

How long with recession last? Watch video at left.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate—the interest banks charge each other on overnight loans—by half a percentage point, and the government finally began distributing funds from the billions in the financial rescue package.

Those efforts were part of a concerted drive by officials, just days before a national election, to demonstrate they are moving as quickly as possible to deal with the most serious financial crisis to hit the country since the 1930s.

"Policymakers have their foot to the accelerator and they are using every effort at their disposal to stop the slide in the economy and financial markets," said Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody's Economy.com. "And it's not a moment too soon given the serious damage that has already been done."

While Wall Street posted its second biggest point gain in history Tuesday in anticipation of the Fed rate cut, the bleak economic reality appeared to ensure that the euphoria was short-lived.

Reducing the rate as low as zero cannot be ruled out, some analysts said, but they cautioned that reducing rates that far carried some risks, including that if the credit crisis suddenly worsened, the Fed would have used up its ammunition.

Analysts also noted that just lowering rates cannot serve as a panacea to overcome a credit crisis. While the goal is to encourage banks to begin lending again, financial institutions are skittish about extending new loans given the huge losses they have racked up in bad mortgages.

Meanwhile, the administration announced that the spigot had been opened on the $700 billion fund created by Congress Oct. 3 to rescue the U.S. financial system.

Treasury issued a report showing checks had been disbursed for $125 billion in payments to nine major banks, including Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. The goal is to bolster their balance sheets so they will resume more normal lending.

And the administration was nearing an agreement on a plan to help around 3 million homeowners avoid foreclosure, according to sources who had been briefed on the matter.

The program would be the most aggressive effort yet to limit damages from the severe housing slump.

The Fed's half-point interest rate cut marked the second rate reduction this month. The Fed slashed the rate by a half-point on Oct. 8 in a coordinated action with other foreign central banks. Economists predict foreign central banks will follow suit with another round of rate cuts over the next week.

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