Can Hollywood Rewrite Recession Ending?
With investors bracing for a nasty recession many are wondering if the entertainment industry could be recession-resistant?
Of course the first images that rush to mind are those of Americans flocking to theaters in the 1930’s, seeking to escape their gritty Depression-era reality. In your mind’s eye you can almost see Fred and Ginger masterfully gliding around the silver screen, dancing the night away to the delight of millions.
We know that movie ticket sales climb during economic slumps, but this isn’t the 1930’s and the media business is changing very rapidly. With Viacom, TimeWarner and Disney all due to report earnings next week, what should you expect?
MEGAHIT MOVIES IN HARD TIMES
1933- King Kong
1974- Blazing Saddles
2008- The Dark Knight
“The media companies are pretty deep in the weeds,” says Anthony Diclemente, Barclays Capital entertainment and broadcasting analyst. “Ad dollars are way down and consumer confidence is weak.”
But the bigger issue in media is that there’s no real way for an investor to put money into just one area of show business.
“All the media companies have valuable content but they’re mostly huge conglomerates so it’s very difficult to break out and invest in only the part that might perform,” says Diclemente. “As a result I’m bearish.”
If you’re looking for a trade, there could be play based on sheer decline in stock price.
“Perhaps Viacom and Discovery are worth a look on valuation,” says Diclemente, “but I wouldn’t buy just yet.”
Doesn't seem like this story has a happy ending here. Best to stick with Fred and Ginger.
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