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Nov.03
2:54 PM ET
Monday, 3 Nov 2008
Where does Intrade stand on swing states, the economy, and the race between Obama and McCain?
Posted By:Gina Francolla
As we close in on the presidential election, most polls are showing Obama in the lead, as McCain still fights for the upset win. What do the Intrade markets show? www.intrade.com)
Senator Barack Obama [OBAMA.P
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()
] has topped a 90% probability that he will win the presidential election, hitting an all-time contract high, according to Intrade.
 |
McCain's [MCCAIN.P Loading... ()
] contract has plummeted, down more than 20% today, and is currently trading at a 9.60% probability that he will win the election, according to Intrade. |
Swing States: Of the 5 swing states below, only West Virginia is showing a high probability of going to the Republican party, according to Intrade.
• Florida: Intrade is currently showing that Obama has an 77.30% probability of winning Florida [FL.D Loading... ()
], up almost 11% today, while McCain has a 25.10% chance of winning Florida [FL.R
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()
]. |
• Ohio: Intrade is currently showing that Obama has an 83.70% probability of winning Ohio [OH.D Loading... ()
], up over 6%, while McCain has a 20% chance of winning Ohio [OH.R
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()
], off almost 7% today. |
• North Carolina: Intrade is currently showing that Obama has a 66% probability of winning North Carolina [NC.D Loading... ()
], while McCain has a 36% probability of winning NC [NC.R
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()
] up over 9% today, but down from a contract high of a 93% probability that McCain would win the state. |
• Pennsylvania: Intrade is currently showing that Obama has an 90% probability of winning Pennsylvania [PA.D Loading... ()
], while McCain has a 9.30% probability of winning PA [PA.R
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()
]. |
• West Virginia: Intrade is currently showing that Obama has only a 10.80% chance of winning West Virginia [WV.D Loading... ()
], while McCain has a 91.50% probability of winning WV [WV.R
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()
]. |
Intrade also trades contracts on recession and the economy, something that the next president will have to contend with early in their term. The Intrade contract tracking the likelihood of a US recession in 2009 [REC09 Loading... ()
] has fallen 16% today to a 73.50% probability of a US recession next year. |
As the Dow [.DJIA Loading... ()
] is currently down almost 30% year-to-date, the bear market is pointing towards a tough 2009 as well.© 2009 CNBC.com
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