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Tech Check
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You gotta hand it to Yahoo. And Google. And Microsoft. And AOL, for that matter. The reports of the death of any and all of these deals may be greatly exaggerated.
Or not.
The latest dead deal that isn't quite dead: Google [GOOG
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] and Yahoo's [YHOO
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] ad-sharing partnership which moved onto life support last week, with Google sources contacting many of us in the news media to say that the deal seemed dead.
Feature Story by Goldman:
Most of us then thought it was unusual posturing by Google, trying to send a not-too-veiled message to the Justice Department that unless it was willing to deal, the federal government would be presiding over the death of one of the most well-known names in business: Yahoo.
Now, we get word from The Wall Street Journal that feverish over-the-weekend negotiations have yielded a new proposal to the feds: that instead of the ten-year pact between the two originally proposed, a Google/Yahoo partnership would only last two years.
Instead of Yahoo counting on a huge pop in additional revenue from a Google partnership, the new plan would cap Yahoo's additional revenue at 25 percent of its search revenue already. Previously, there was no cap and Yahoo itself estimated the partnership could generate "hundreds of millions of dollars" in additional annual revenue. Those claims now appear to be seriously in doubt.
And instead of giving Yahoo enormous access to a group of new advertisers already doing business with Google, Google would agree to let advertisers opt out of a deal with Yahoo.
These seem to be enormous concessions by Yahoo to get a deal done, and fall way short of the lofty expectations some hung on a partnership between these two. It's not clear yet where the concessions are coming from. If they're coming from Yahoo (likely), it suggests a company in dire straits, grasping at anything to make this deal happen — even if it is for a substantially shorter time than the company had hoped.
Justice Department officials have already expressed anti-trust concerns, saying that the companies would control better than 80 percent of the search advertising market, and could set advertising rates at will. Microsoft, as well as a host of major advertisers, have been lobbying Justice Department officials to take action to block the deal.
Further, the possible disintegration of the deal was widely believed to be the key factor in Yahoo re-opening negotiations to merge with
Time Warner's
AOL unit. That deal was also thought dead until speculation over the death of a Yahoo/Google partnership began to circulate. And of course that dead-but-not-dead deal followed the death, and then non-death, but now possibly dead-again negotiations between Yahoo and
Microsoft
. Still with me?
Meantime, just today, Yahoo is dealing with more executive losses with the company confirming that the executive who oversaw its media properties, Scott Moore, has left the company. Al Harms, who ran the company's original programming, will also be leaving. They follow Yahoo's top tech executive Qi Lu, top network executive Jeff Weiner and communications and community vice president Brad Garlinghouse who have all departed this year.
A Justice Department decision on whether to block the Yahoo/Google partnership has been expected at any day. It's not clear whether any of these new concessions might secure the department's approval. But the damage may already be done for Yahoo investors hoping for a major Google partnership pay-off — but who will now have to re-evaluate their expectations dramatically.
Questions? Comments?
Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes