- Time to Buy Treasurys?
- Lightning Round: Las Vegas Sands, ADC Telecom, Satyam Computer and More
- Lightning Round OT: Knight Capital, Ebix and More
- Is Lear, Back From Bankruptcy, a Buy?
- Sanofi-Aventis Falling Off a Patent Cliff?
- Cramer: Your Thanksgiving Week Game Plan
- Your First Move For Monday November 23rd
- Burned By JPMorgan, Whirlpool & More
- The Latest Picks That Paid - Friday November 20th
- Web Extra: Defense, Defense
MOST SHARED
RSS FEED
Text Size 
Democrats hope to solidify their thin leadership in the Senate. What do the Intrade markets show as the likelihood of a 60 seat or greater majority for the Dems? (www.intrade.com)
According to the Intrade its prediction markets are showing that most people believe that Democrats will retain at least a 56- 60 seat majority in the Senate, by an 88% probability [D.56
Loading...
()
]. However, the Intrade market is less sure that the Dems will retain a "filibuster proof" majority of over 60 seats.
 |
-The Intrade contract predicting that the Democrats will hold 61-65 seats [D.61 Loading... ()
] is only trading at a 9% probability. |
The Dow [.DJIA Loading... ()
] is currently up over 2% today in a nice election day rally. Only three times since 1940 has the Dow been lower from one election day to the next, with today's election day tracking for the 4th occurrence:
• Going from the Nixon Administration to the Carter Administration:
-In 1972, on the day Nixon was elected, the Dow was at 984.80 and the next election when Carter was elected in 1976, the Dow closed at 966.09
*During Nixon's administration the Dow lost 1.9%
• Transitioning from the Carter Administration to the first Reagan Administration:
-In 1976, on the day Carter was elected, the Dow was at 966.09 and the next election when Reagan was elected to his first term in 1980, the Dow closed at 937.20
*During Carter's administration the Dow lost 3%
• Transition from Bush W.'s first term to his second term:
-When Bush W was elected for his first term in 2000, the Dow was at 10907.06, and when he was elected for his second term in 2004, the Dow was at 10137.05
*During Bush's administration from 1st term to 2nd term (from election day 2000 - to election day 2004) the Dow lost 7.06%, double the loss during Carter's term
• Arguably Bush W. will be the only 2 term president (since 1940) to hand over the White House on election day with the Dow lower each consecutive election day.
-Today, Bush's 3rd election day since he beat Al Gore in 2004, it still fairly safe to say that the Dow will close below 10035.73, though a rally is in progress with the Dow at about 9505.
*Bush is tracking for another loss of about 5.29% for the Dow in his second term.
(The US markets were closed on Election Day until 1980, so Election Day Data prior to 1980 uses the prior day's data.)
Some top performing administrations for the Dow:
-Under the Clinton administration, from Jan, 1993 - Jan, 2001, the Dow gained 226.58%
-Under the Reagan administration, from Jan, 1981 - Jan, 1989, the Dow gained 135.13%
(Source: Dow Jones)
For more information on Intrade political futures and the 2008 presidential election click here.
- Technology can make or break a fortune in the world of alternative energy.
- Many people are facing the holidays with substantially smaller incomes. Here’s how some are adapting.
- Jim Cramer is a proponent of stocks that pay healthy dividends, and here are his top five dividend plays.
- From salt, to lip balm to envelopes, it turns out that bacon flavoring can sell almost anything.
- The homebuyer's tax credit jacked sales for a while, but 2010 is looking weak. Now what?
- CNBC’s technology reporter Jim Goldman guides you through the best gadgets to buy this holiday season.
Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes