New Stimulus for Economy May Arrive by Christmas

Though it's too soon to say whether Christmas will arrive early in the nation's capital, Barack Obama's victory and an expanded majority in Congress could encourage Democrats to make up a list of economic stimulus measures and check it twice. 

AP

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Wednesday urged passage of at least $61 billion in new economic stimulus funding this month, but said the future of the legislation requires the cooperation of Republicans in the Senate and President Bush.

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer told CNBC earlier in the day that "we need to act sooner than later" on a second  stimulus package but didn't commit it to it getting it done in a lame duck Congressional session, which would presumably start in mid- to late-November. (See video here)

Government spending analysts say the election results now make it more likely a second fiscal stimulus package will be approved in a lame-duck session and that the cost will be closer to the high end of estimates.

"Yes, I think so, because everyone seems to be looking for help," says Tom Schatz, president of Citizens Against Government Waste, adding, "People are asking: 'Where's my bailout.'"

Hoyer used a $100 billion figure, but didn't describe what kind of support it had.

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When Congress started talking about a successor to the original $168-billion stimulus package a couple months ago, the price tag was about $60 billion. It wasn’t long before it was $150 billion. Then $300 billion was thrown around.

"I think it may be on the medium side," says Robert Bixby, executive director of the Concord Coalition, which advocates fiscal responsibility. "I don't like to think of $200 billion as small, but that number is realistic," partly because it is around the size ($190 billion) Sen. Obama was advocating before becoming President Elect, he said.

AP Barack Obama, Michelle Obama, Jill Biden, and Joe Biden

Obama, for one, didn't tip his hand in his victory speech. He emphasized broad themes, such as shared sacrifice and prosperity, and didn't make much of the mandate concept.

Regardless, critics and supporters alike, should hope that the next fiscal stimulus package is more of a commercial success than its predecessor, lest another big-budget flop be tacked on to the ever-growing federal debt.

The hastily conceived first stimulus package quickly signed into law last February was built around tax breaks for business and tax rebates for consumers, whose impact on the economy was fleeting, at best.

This time around—with recession a reality not a perception and consumer confidence at a record low—Congress is likely to want more measures along with more money. But that doesn’t mean it will be any wiser or more likely to leave a lasting impression on the nation’s economy or psyche of consumers.

"Budget matters in Congress tend to get driven by a consensus number and people sort of fit the policies to fit the number," observes Bixby.

“It’s a pretty dangerous process the way its been approached so far," says Brandon Arnold, who follows public policy for the Cato Institute.

In its recent nine-point prescription for sound fiscal policy, the coalition joined a growing chorus of groups calling for a balancing of short-term stimulus and long-term discipline, noting that spending patterns are already unsustainable and new revenue will needed.

Given the current state of the economy, $200 billion would be equal to about 1.3 percent of GDP. Though that’s a relatively small sum compared to the federal government’s extraordinarily expensive efforts to  shore up the financial sector.

And it is smaller than previous stimulus efforts. In 2001, the tax rebate portion of Bush Administration's long-term tax-cut legislation totaled just $38 billion.

President Clinton’s unsuccessful $30 billion plan in 1993—proposed, it later turns out, after the recession had ended but while joblessness continued to rise—was rejected by Congress.

This time around the circumstances are certainly unusual. Though Obama has supported a second stimulus package—as well a housing rescue plan—during the campaign, it's unclear, what sort of a role the President Elect will play and whether his election victory also engendered a mandate for such policy moves.

He will clearly be involved, say observers, but Bixby, for one thinks House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid are likely to have "more of a final say in the contents."

Pelosi reportedly plans to hold a news conference on the lame-duck matter Wednesday.

CONTINUED : What Might Be in the Package

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