What the Pros Say: 300,000 Jobs Lost in October
The Labor Department releases October's employment numbers at 8:30 am New York time Friday, with a big drop in nonfarm payrolls predicted.
The consensus estimate is still for a loss of 200,000 last month, but many economists and analysts have been raising the possibility of 300,000 jobs lost after a recent series of very weak economic numbers.
Here's what experts around the globe have to say about the U.S. labor market:
Number Will Be Closer to 300,000
The employment picture is grim and big job losses could come in November as well, Rob Rennie, currency strategist at Westpac Bank. Look for employment numbers to set the tone for currency trading in the short term, Rennie said.
Bracing for a Big Loss
A lot of market commentary over the last 24 hours indicated that economists and investors are bracing a sharper drop in payrolls, Neil MacKinnon, chief economist at ECU Group, said. It would be "a big surprise if there was any good news," he added.
More Big Losses to Come
This is just the beginning, there will be many more months of big job losses to come, Rob Carnell, chief international economist at ING said, adding that he expects U.S. jobs to fall by 300,000.
Can Market Deal with Extreme Drop?
The market has already discounted in an extremely negative number for the U.S. nonfarm payrolls data, Robert Pavlik, CIO at Oaktree Asset Management said, adding that even if jobs decline by 250,000, the market will be able to deal with it.
Pavlik is more optimistic on the figures going forward, expecting fewer major declines.
US Unemployment at 8.5% Next Year
James Bevan, CIO of CCLA Investment Management, says there is a risk that U.S. unemployment spikes up to 8.5 percent by this time next year as it is a deleveraging episode rather than a recession.
Dollar Could Rally on US Jobs Report
The market has probably priced in the worst of the worst, Bill Hubard, chief economist at MIG Investments said Friday. Hubard said that if the jobs decline exceeds 300,000, the dollar will rally, and even a stock market rally, as it looks like we're getting closer to the bottom.