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There's the sheer incompetence of the Bush administration, the horrifying results of deregulation and non-regulation, the fact that the conservative movement, once vibrant twenty years ago, now seems sclerotic and out of touch with the real world. There's also the fact that younger voters tend to oppose the war in Iraq more strongly than older voters.
But I've got a different theory, and it's one that suggests a grim future for a Republican party that's increasingly defined by its far-right positions on social issues. I think the reason the Republicans have lost us for good can be summed up in two words: gay people.
Young voters are turned off, even disgusted, by what we see as the rampant hating on gays and lesbians by the Republican party. This isn't dispositive, but the gay marriage ban in California, Proposition 8, which passed by a 52 to 48 margin, was opposed by young voters (that same 18 to 29 cohort) by a 61 to 39 margin. The opposition to Proposition 8 from young people was only a little smaller than our support for Obama and the Democrats.
Poll after poll suggests that my generation is a lot less prejudiced about homosexuality than older age groups, and the fact that the Republican Party wants to make persecuting gay people a top national priority simply does not fly with millennials. We may disagree on economic policy and foreign policy, but when it comes to social issues, people my age have pretty much reached a consensus, and it's very, very far from the consensus of today's Republican party.
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