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My crystal ball was a little on the fritz toward the end of last year when I looked ahead at what to expect in tech for 2008. I got it right when I said that several key sectors in tech looked good for 2008, but who could have imagined that the nation's economy, led by the mortgage meltdown, would suck the life out of everything.
HP's Mark Hurd and I didn't get together for the one-on-one interview I had hoped for, so that'll make the list for 2009. I wrote that Yahoo [YHOO
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] would either get acquired or take a significant investment from Dubai. The former should have happened. And the other key suggestion: That Microsoft [MSFT
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] would take the wraps off its Xbox 360 Mobile device didn't happen either.
So I'm learning there's a big difference between what should have happened and what could have happened in 2008; and it might just be a fool's chore, in the current economic climate, to look ahead into expectations for 2009.
1. Microsoft-Yahoo
The top story in tech will be Yahoo's long-awaited deal with Microsoft, though by the time it's announced, everyone will have lost interest. Yahoo will name a new CEO by year-end, he or she will ask for 100 days to come up with a plan, and during that time-frame, a sweeping partnership with Microsoft will be announced, hinging on Search, but encompassing so much more. And when Kevin Johnson, Microsoft's former head of Windows and Internet, is named Yahoo's new CEO, the writing will be on the wall.
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AP Apple CEO Steve Jobs introducing the iPod Nano on Sept. 9, 2008. |
2. Apple
Apple's [AAPL
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] Steve Jobs will unveil something "awesome," "elegant," "cool," and "beautiful" at MacWorld in San Francisco in January. Two weeks later, when Apple announces earnings, the company will soundly beat its paltry guidance, and the Street's expectations as well. And the shorts will realize that their time and effort is better spent on a company truly weak, rather than trying to weaken a company so truly strong.
3. HP, Finally
HP's [HPQ
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] CEO Mark Hurd will sit down with me for a one-on-one on-camera interview.
4. Google
Google [GOOG
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] will finally announce a new revenue stream, above and beyond search, that actually shows serious potential; likely something with new green server farms that companies will be able to use to expand the concept of so-called Cloud Computing.
5. Tech Titans Again
Big Cap tech, including Cisco [CSCO
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], Intel [INTC
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], HP, Microsoft, Oracle [ORCL
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], IBM [IBM
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], and many others will start the long road back to recovery on the back of Barack Obama's economic stimulus programs. Tech was unfairly sold off ahead of, and during, this latest economic meltdown. It'll be the first to recover, and likely "over" recover when things start turning around. Another big opportunity for the smart investors willing to crawl out from their shells and shoulder a little risk.
6. Facebook
Facebook announces layoffs and a broader partnership with Microsoft, which gets a chunk of Facebook for a far better rate than it did in 2007 because its valuation is so much lower.
7. Chips
AMD [AMD
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] looks for a buyer, disappears completely as a competitor to Intel, and Intel has to figure out a way to come up with a new, legitimate competitor in the marketplace so anti-trust regulators leave it alone.
8. Palm-Dell
Palm [PALM
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] gets acquired by Dell [DELL
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] and the companies work together on Dell's entry into the smart phone market. If that happens early enough in the year, look for Dell to make an announcement by the end of the year that it's withdrawing its plans to enter the smart phone market, turning its deal with Palm into a total write-off.
9. Oops
I lose my BlackBerry and don't realize it for at least an hour.
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So there you go. I think all of them are long-shots, particularly that last one, but let's see what happens. It's going to be an ugly first half of the year. The ugliness will spread into the second half until we start to see the first signs of recovery.
But you gotta' be careful: buying when the momentum's already started will cut into the gains you could've enjoyed had you acted just a little earlier. And by doing so, the recovery itself could get started sooner than we anticipate. I wish you prosperity, serenity, good health and happiness in 2009. Thanks to all who kept checking in on tech here at Tech Check. I hope you plan to return, and often, next year too. Happy New Year!
Questions? Comments?
Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes