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BEHIND THE MONEY: Despite Today's Setback, Some Investors Believe in This Bounce
The vital signs of the mighty rebound over the previous five trading days are quite impressive. From the close on Nov. 20 to the close last Friday, the S&P 500 gained 19.1 percent. That move cut its bear market loss down to a more palatable 43 percent, from a stomach-churning 52 percent.
Still, it became a running joke on Fast Money to mark the might of this rally. In all the seriousness I could muster, I would tell host Dylan Ratigan to make sure he points out that it was the best 4 days since the 1930s. The next day, I would tell him to make sure he points out it was the best five days since the Great Depression.
The traders weren't "feeling" the rally for a number of reasons. Namely, because it came immediately after a two-day collapse where the S&P 500 shed 12 percent and hit its lowest in 11 years. Also, this bounce came during the light trading period surrounding the Thanksgiving holiday.
While Jason Trennert is not ready to "divine a long-term trend" on the overall market from the last five days of trading, the Chief Investment Strategist at Strategas Research Partners is ready to pronounce that a few playable trends may have made themselves known during this bounce.
Trennert, who founded his New York-based firm after gaining a strong reputation on the Street while working for Ed Hyman's ISI Group, notes that aluminum, gold [US@GC.1
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] and steel were among the top 20 performing industry groups since Nov. 20, along with global infrastructure groups like engineering and construction materials. In his note to clients this morning, Trennert calls this a "reflation trade" due to the fact that the "Administration and the Fed both appear to be training all available firepower against the prospect of deflation."
Catch Trennert tonight on Fast at 5 p.m. to find out the best ways to put this trade on.
ONE LAST NOTE: If you thought you had a rough Thanksgiving with the in-laws, check out Pilgrim's Pride [PPC
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] shares. Turkey sales last week apparently weren't large enough to keep the poultry producer from filing for bankruptcy today.
John Melloy is the Senior Editorial Producer for Fast Money. Before joining CNBC, he was an editor for Bloomberg News, overseeing the U.S. Stock Market coverage team.______________________________________________________
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Trader disclosure: On Dec. 1st, 2008, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (AGU), (BTU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE); Macke Owns (WMT), (MSFT), (UUP), (DIS); Macke Is Short (YHOO), (TM); Finerman's Firm Owns (MSFT); Finerman's Firm Is Short (IYR), (IJR), (MDY),(SPY), (IWM), (COF), (BBT), (USO), (VNO), (EQR); Finerman's Firm Owns (DSX) And Is Short (GNK); Seymour Owns (AAPL), (AA), (BAC), (F), (MER); Seygem Asset Management Is Short (EEM); Seygem Asset Management Owns (EEV)
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