Skip navigation
Economy Video Gallery
The Ukrainian economy dropped by 15.9% in the third quarter, official GDP data showed Monday. Lilit Gevorgyan from IHS G...
A look some very old techniques with cutting edge medical care, with Dr. Michael Roizen, RealAge and Dr. Richard Carmona...
Weight-loss initiatives, with David Kirchhoff, Weight Watchers International and Dr. Louis Aronne, Weight Control Progra...


Current DateTime: 11:41:06 16 Nov 2009
LinksList Documentid: 24355697

FEATURED QUIZZES


Current DateTime: 11:41:07 16 Nov 2009
LinksList Documentid: 33793611
  • How Much Do You Know About Green?

      Green has become part of our everyday lives. Green is everywhere-- energy, clothing, food, housing, transportation. It's a big business and a global business.

  • The Billionaire BFF's

      Philanthropists. Bridge partners. Hockey players. Which responses are based on facts from Buffett's and Gates' real lives?

  • The Many Myths of Coca-Cola

      Can you tell which statements are true, and which ones are just rumors?


Current DateTime: 11:41:07 16 Nov 2009
LinksList Documentid: 24890560
  • Winterizing Your Portfolio

      If 2009 was the winter of our discontent, will 2010 be a winter wonderland for investors? A lot depends on the recovery—or lack thereof.

  • Investor's Guide to Real Estate

      Some even say the long-awaited recovery is here. Regardless, buyers and sellers alike can profit from our guide.

  • Alternative Investing

      Stocks and bonds? Sure. But it's a big world out there for investors.

powered by digg
Americans See Brighter Economic Future: Survey
By: Steve Liesman, Senior Economic Reporter | 10 Dec 2008 | 12:02 AM ET
Text Size



Steve Liesman
CNBC Senior Economics Reporter

On the eve of the holiday season, the CNBC/Portfolio.com Wealth in American Survey finds Americans painting a deeply grim picture of the current state of the economy with bleak implications for holiday spending. But Americans are expressing optimism about the future that seems tied to the election of Barack Obama.

The current pessimism runs so deep that, for the first time in the survey's two-year history, no statistically significant group (not even 1 percent) of the more than 800 survey respondents rated the economy as excellent. In fact, the percentage of Americans who rate the economy as poor ratcheted up to 70 percent from 65 percent last quarter and 33 percent a year ago (see chart below).

The pessimism looks set to have real economic consequences: Americans plans to spend on average just $704 on their holiday shopping, down 4.6 percent compared with a year ago. One in 10 Americans plan to spend nothing on holiday shopping, double the one in 20 from a year ago.

Survey Tools:

And yet, there was unexpected optimism in the survey. The percentage of Americans who believe the economy will improve next year surged 11 percentage points from September and stands at 39 percent (see chart below). In fact, the level of optimism is higher than at any time in the past 10 months, and appears connected with a change in administrations.

Democrats are twice as optimistic about the economy as they were in September; Republicans are nearly twice as pessimistic. But independents are more upbeat, with 35 percent now saying the economy will improve in 12 months, compared with 25 percent in September. Asked how the election of Barack Obama would influence the economy, 55 percent of respondents said they expect it to get better and only 13 percent see it worsening. The answer breaks sharply along party lines, with 78 percent of Democrats and 24 percent of Republicans believing Obama's election will improve the economy. Independents were split down the middle.

Regardless of what Americans believe about the future of the economy, they are not optimistic about a series of key economic variables. Americans think their wages will grow by only 3.1 percent next year, down from 5.3 percent a year ago; they believe their home prices will decline by 1.6 percent, the most in the life of the survey, and considerably below the 0.3 percent decline envisioned in September. A year ago, Americans thought their home prices would rise by 2.2 percent over the coming 12 months (see charts below).

One positive outlook for the future is that Americans see prices rising by 5.8 percent, the smallest increase since the survey began asking the question in March 2007. The percentage is almost half the expected increase registered in June when oil and food prices were surging. Also on the plus side, while Americans rate the national economy poorly, they have a better view of their personal situation. More than half of Americans (52 percent) rate their personal financial situation as good or excellent, compared to just 4 percent when asked about the overall economy. (Tell us how you feel about your personal finances. Take our poll.)

Other findings of the survey:

Americans plan to spend less on shopping this holiday season, with 30 percent saying the higher cost of necessities is the No. 1 reason for cutting back. Sixteen percent said it was because they or a family member are unemployed, and 15 percent said it was because they are having trouble paying regular bills.

  • Investing: 52 percent of respondents said it is a somewhat bad or very bad time to invest in the stock market, up from 27 percent in October, 2007;
  • Safe Banking: 35 percent of those surveyed said they are not confident or only somewhat confident their money is safe in a federally insured bank account; and
  • Purchasing a Car: 37 percent surveyed said they would be willing to buy a car from a bankrupt auto maker, while 52 percent said they would not, and 11 percent were unsure.
© 2009 CNBC.com
Tools:
Print EmailAdd This share icon
  • digg share

CNBC HIGHLIGHTS

  • CNBC's Jim Goldman asks: Has the sun begun to set on Twitter? Data suggests its best days are over.
  • High unemployment is likely to persist for a while—you might need to change how you look for work.
  • De Loach Vineyards is selling its pinot noir the old fashioned way, helping to cut energy and transportation costs.
  • Why are the Chinese concerned about the progress of U.S. health care legislation?
  • If a terrible driver on your morning commute has you feeling like you want to scream, check this out.
ADD COMMENTS
Remaining characters


Current DateTime: 10:28:52 16 Nov 2009
LinksList Documentid: 29778428

Current DateTime: 10:28:53 16 Nov 2009
LinksList Documentid: 29779196

Current DateTime: 11:11:30 16 Nov 2009
LinksList Documentid: 29779199

Current DateTime: 10:42:55 16 Nov 2009
LinksList Documentid: 29779198
  Data is a real-time snapshot  *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes
Global Business and Financial News, Stock Quotes, and Market Data and Analysis

© 2009 CNBC, Inc.  All Rights Reserved.
A Division of NBC Universal
Thomson ReutersThomson Reuters