GOLDMAN SACHS

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The storied investment bank that is now a humbled bank holding company reports Q4 earnings Tuesday 12/16 at "approximately 830a" ET. Media Call at 9a. Analyst conference call at 11a ET.

WHAT WILL MOVE THE STOCK:

SAME QUESTIONS, DIFFERENT QUARTER - It's a sign of the times that many of the questions I posed last quarter remain largely unanswered. How will Goldman make money? How much capital? Are there new writedowns?

BALANCE SHEET - How big is it, what's on it and how are assets valued? NY Times says expectations are for a 20%-30% shrink in total assets to $700 billion to $800 billion.

Some specific statistics to watch:

• Total Assets (was $1.08 trillion at end of Q3)
• Tier 1 asset ratio (was 11.6% at end of Q3)
• Level 3 assets were $68 billion at the end of Q3 or about 6% of total assets.

HOW WILL GOLDMAN MAKE MONEY AS A BANK? - This will be Goldman's first earnings report as a bank holding company. How will the the company make money now that it's subject to tighter regulations on leverage etc. etc.?

Q3 revenues from some core businesses:

• Investment banking: $1.29 Billion
• Trading and Principal Investments: $2.70 Billion
• Asset Management & Securities Services: $2.05 Billion

FIRST LOSS IN A DECADE - If Goldman Sachs posts a loss this quarter, it will be the first since 1998. That is a sobering turn for a firm that had prided itself on making money through thick and thin. Will red ink move the stock? No, but just the hint of it, is already making headlines. 

MANAGING EXPECTATIONS - Estimates for Goldman Sachs have plummeted to a loss of $3.50 per share from a profit of $0.54 per share just 30 days ago and well after the financial crisis was in full swing. So, it's cold comfort to say that Goldman has beat expectations for 12 straight quarters. The rapid drop in estimates should also be kept in mind when evaluating Goldman's results.

WHISPER NUMBER - Starmine expects Goldman's numbers to be even worse. Based on its weighting of which analysts have been more accurate, Starmine predicts Q4 losses of $4.28. Starmine also expects negative revenues of $418.7 million, well below analysts' consensus of positive $932 million.

WRITEDOWNS - Speaking of negative revenues, will Goldman have big writedowns? If so, which asset classes are affected?

ESTIMATES: (Note - estimates can change daily)

• Q4 EPS down to a loss of $3.50 from a gain of $7.01, revenues down 91% to $932 million.
• Q1 EPS down 52% to $1.52, revenues down 9% to $7.544 billion
• FY 08 EPS down 73% to $6.69, revenues down 46% to $24.89 billion
• FY 09 EPS up 39% to $9.31, revenues up 26% to $31.443 billion

Source: Thomson Reuters

Starmine predicts Q4 EPS loss of $4.278 and Q1 EPS of $1.603 based on its weighting of analysts based on previous accuracy and other factors.

Starmine also expects negative Q4 revenues of $418.7 million and positive $7.665 billion in Q4 revenues.

Year-ago actuals: Q4 EPS $7.01, revenues $10.741 billion

*All estimates are current as of 12/15 and subject to change.*

FACTOIDS: DOWN 49% THIS QUARTER - Goldman Sachs shares are down 49% since the company's last earnings report on September 16th. On Nov. 20th, it closed at $50.20 per share -- it's all-time low. The one good piece of news: since then the stock is up 35%.

Comments?  Send them to

bythenumbers.cnbc.com

Note: An earlier story incorrectly said Goldman Sachs had not posted a quarterly loss since 1929. Goldman Sachs says it last had a quarterly loss in 1998.

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