Pros Say: H1 Will Be 'Horrific' — But Fed Isn't Done
Some of the bad news Tuesday was "less worse" than many feared: Goldman Sachs reported its first quarterly loss since going public — but the $2.1 billion loss was much narrower than many had feared and Goldman shares rose as much as 11 percent. Stocks soared on the Federal Reserve rate-cut decision and options trading looks bullish on Boeing. CNBC heard from experts who predict a massive OPEC cut and more Fed moves to come.
Economy 'Horrific' Until H2 2009
Kurt Karl, chief economist of Swiss Re, sees "horrific" indicators about the economy through at least the middle of next year, anticipating two more quarters of negative growth. The Federal Reserve has done all it can with its interest-rate tool, but has other tools in the box.
Big OPEC Production Cut Seen This Week
Francisco Blanch, head of global commodity research at Merrill Lynch, said he expects OPEC to announce a production cut of between 1-1/2 million and 2 million barrels per day. OPEC is now just trying to find a floor to oil prices, with demand falling off a cliff. Blanch says the price of a barrel of oil could dip into the mid-20s, but should stabilize in the 40s. (Check oil & commodities prices here.)
He Saw Crisis Coming; Now He Likes Corporate Bonds
Egan-Jones Ratings' Sean Egan was one of the most accurate forecasters of the current financial crisis. He said corporate bond raters who kept AAA ratings on bonds for too long have now overshot in the other direction, and bonds now rated BB and below are huge bargains for new money. The probability of a loss is very low, and the potential upside is terrific, he says.
Madoff Scandal: There's More — And It May Be Even Worse
Money manager Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners Management said he fears we shall soon hear that several high-profile hedge funds used Bernard Madoff's fund as a cash management tool, because Treasury yields are so low, and that will drag down their results.
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