Thursday: U.S. jobless claims eased from a 26-year peak but still showed weakness in the economy. After the Federal Reserve's moves this week, homeowners are scrambling to refinance; the dollar is sliding against the euro. And the second half of the $700 billion TARP bailout fund looks likely to go toward foreclosure relief and stimulus. CNBC heard from experts who say oil prices will sink even further — but then skyrocket and take stocks with them.
Oil Now Reflects Realities of the Global Economy
Kevin Caron of Stifel Nicolaus commented on yesterday's declines in both the dollar and oil. A few months ago, he explained, dollar weakness equaled oil strength, but Wednesday's reports of a much bigger build in crude oil supplies than expected showed just how much the landscape has changed. There is a huge surplus, he warned, that has not yet hit the market.
Bad Times for Hedge Funds
A record number of hedge funds were liquidated in the third quarter, according to Ken Heinz of HFR Hedge Fund Research. And the number of hedge funds being launched touched a record low — the first time that the number of liquidations topped launches. Heinz expects consolidation to continue in the fourth quarter and in the first quarter of next year.
Market Says: We Don't Need No Stinkin' Fundamentals
Jim Iuorio of TJM Institutional Services said economic news may continue to be dreadful, but the commodity-tracking CRB Index is up 14 percent in the last two weeks; gold and silver are also up substantially. Most analysts have forgotten the inflation threat, he said — but he predicts that when oil starts to move, it will really fly, and the stock market will surge accordingly.
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