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When will Santa Arrive this Year?

081222 Christmas Tree.jpg

Historically, December has been the strongest month of the year on average for the Dow, with an average gain of 1.36% since 1896. So far this year, the Dow is down 2.8% month-to-date. Will we see a Santa Claus rally this year?

If Santa does come this year, there is a higher likelihood that he will come on Christmas Eve. Historically, the Dow has been up nearly 66% of the time on Christmas Eve. It also has done better the week following Christmas than during the week leading up to Christmas. Here is a breakdown of how the Dow has moved on the days leading up to the holidays:

  • 5 Days Before Christmas: Average gain of .17%, up 53% of the time
  • 4 Days Before Christmas: Average loss of .02%, up 49% of the time
  • 3 Days Before Christmas: Average loss of .03%, up 53% of the time
  • 2 Days Before Christmas: Average loss of .03%, up 48% of the time
  • Christmas Eve: Average gain of .32%, up 66% of the time
  • 1 Day After Christmas: Average gain of .11%, up 55% of the time
  • 2 Days After Christmas: Average gain of .21%, up 57% of the time
  • 3 Days After Christmas: Average gain of .37%, up 64% of the time
  • 4 Days After Christmas: Average gain of .32%, up 65% of the time

Leading the Dow today are Citigroup , Verizon , Merck , JP Morgan Chase , AT&T and Kraft .

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