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Current DateTime: 07:57:48 11 Jul 2009
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Dec.22
10:01 AM ET
Monday, 22 Dec 2008
When will Santa Arrive this Year?
Posted By:Ariel Nelson

Historically, December has been the strongest month of the year on average for the Dow, with an average gain of 1.36% since 1896.  So far this year, the Dow [.DJIA  Loading...      ()   ] is down 2.8% month-to-date.  Will we see a Santa Claus rally this year?

If Santa does come this year, there is a higher likelihood that he will come on Christmas Eve.  Historically, the Dow has been up nearly 66% of the time on Christmas Eve.  It also has done better the week following Christmas than during the week leading up to Christmas.  Here is a breakdown of how the Dow has moved on the days leading up to the holidays:

  • 5 Days Before Christmas: Average gain of .17%, up 53% of the time
  • 4 Days Before Christmas: Average loss of .02%, up 49% of the time
  • 3 Days Before Christmas: Average loss of .03%, up 53% of the time
  • 2 Days Before Christmas: Average loss of .03%, up 48% of the time
  • Christmas Eve: Average gain of .32%, up 66% of the time
  • 1 Day After Christmas: Average gain of .11%, up 55% of the time
  • 2 Days After Christmas: Average gain of .21%, up 57% of the time
  • 3 Days After Christmas: Average gain of .37%, up 64% of the time
  • 4 Days After Christmas: Average gain of .32%, up 65% of the time

Leading the Dow today are Citigroup [C  Loading...      ()   ], Verizon [VZ  Loading...      ()   ], Merck [MRK  Loading...      ()   ], JP Morgan Chase [JPM  Loading...      ()   ], AT&T [T  Loading...      ()   ] and Kraft [KFT  Loading...      ()   ].

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