![]()
- US Will Borrow Less as Banks Pay Back Funds: Geithner
- Wal-Mart Holiday Forecast Light, Profit Beats
- US Mortgage Refinancing Up; Buying Demand Sinks
- Kohl's Profit Beats Street, But Outlook Falls Short
- United Tech to Buy GE Security Unit for $1.82 Billion
- Gold Hits $1,122, Barrick Chief Says Selloff Possible
- Wall Street Pay Is Often too High: Bill Gates
- Morgan Stanley Gets Aggressive in Luring Brokers
- Foreclosures Fall Again But Improvement Likely Fleeting
- Ford, Hyundai, Audi Gaining Interest
- This Drug Firm Will Snap Up 50% By Mid-2010: Trader
- Warren Buffett Ranked #14 On Forbes 'Most Powerful People' List
- What to Expect From Disney Earnings?
- HP's Shot Across Cisco's Bow
- USC Football Blog Leads All-Access Space
- Clowning Around At Work
- Ahead of Earnings Disney Restructures Studio
- Nov. 11: Unusual Volume Leaders
MOST SHARED
- Wal-Mart Holiday Forecast Light, Profit Beats
- How the Droid and Google Threaten the GPS Makers
- Jobless Claims Post Another Drop as Picture Improves
- CNN Anchor Lou Dobbs Says He is Leaving Network
- Shopping for Answers
- HPQ to Acquire 3Com
- Obama Most Powerful Person in World: Forbes
- Pricier Beer Helps AB InBev Operating Profit
- Highest State Foreclosure Rates
- Rising Jobless Biggest Threat to World Trade: WTO
Each year, Pequot Capital Chief Investment Strategist Byron Wien attempts the impossible: Predicting the year's top surprises.
His predictions for 2008 turned out to be good, as the economy went bad: Among other things, he called for a 10 percent drop in the S&P 500, a plunge in oil prices, victory for Barack Obama, and a cutting of rates by the ECB.
"It was a better-than-average year," he told CNBC. "A typical year might be, I'd get five or six right; I got pretty close to seven, if you grade them on individual components."
So here's his list of surprises for 2009, with a comment on each one:
1. S&P Rises to 1,200 in anticipation of a second-half recovery.
"We've made the lows for the cycle; we won't go up in a straight line, we'll have a saw-tooth pattern, but I think we'll get to 1,200 before the year is out."
2. Gold Rises to $1,200 per ounce.
"People are disenchanted with paper currencies, and eventually they'll get disenchanted with the dollar."
3. Crude oil returns to $80 per barrel.
"China and India will maintain growth...and I think , as a result of that, the continued increase in demand for petroleum products will be there."
4. Dollar Goes Into Serious Downward Slide.
"I just don't see how the dollar can hold up, with these deficits, and with the money supply expanding so rapidly."
5. 10-Year Treasury Yield Rises to 4 percent.
"I think it's aberrationally low, because of the fund flows into the United States."
6. Chinese growth exceeds 7 percent.
"It's been a terrible 2008 for all emerging markets, but I think that creates the opportunity...for growth to continue in India and China."
7. State governments will threaten bankruptcy.
"New York State is very dependent on the financial-services industry, and (it) is in tough shape...California is a big risk also."
8. Housing market will bottom early.
"It may take several years to work off the inventory, but you will see a revival of the housing industry."
9. U.S. Savings Rate will fail to improve.
"You'll see much better spending patterns for next Christmas."
10. President Obama will slow troop withdrawals.
"An American military presence in the Middle East is a necessary condition of our foreign policy."
More From CNBC.com:
- Pro Says: 'Buy & Hold' Just Won't Work
- Cramer's Top Tech Stock for 2009
- Not All Doom and Gloom: Positive Factors for '09
- Casino Stocks: What Options Are Saying
- Billboard allows music lovers to watch concerts for free online, choosing from five different camera angles as they watch.
- US real estate prices have fallen dramatically, but some places are still doing well. See the best-performing zip codes this year.
- An Italian cashmere maker aims to make profits while creating ideal conditions for his workers.
- Just in time for the holidays, the Triumph company of Japan offers the latest innovation in women’s undergarments.
- Vote and suggest your own, and remember--there's a fine line between a hero and a zero.
- The New York Times explains what the Senate will have to do to truly improve cost and quality in U.S. health care.











