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The Twentieth Amendment to the US Constitution (1933) designates that "the terms of the President and Vice President shall end at noon on the 20th day of January", thereby defining the modern Inauguration Day. Prior to 1933, Inauguration Day was on March 4.
There have been 33 presidential inaugurations since the formation of the the Dow in 1896, including 5 off-cycle inaugurations due to VP's taking over mid-term for their Presidents (Teddy Roosevelt, Calvin Coolidge, Harry Truman, Lyndon Johnson, and Gerald Ford). Seven of the 33 inaugurations occurred on weekends.
Historically, Inauguration Day has not been good for the markets:
- Looking at all 33 inaugurations (using using the closest trading as a proxy for weekend inaugurations)
- The Dow was down 72% of the time, average loss of -.45%
- The S&P (as of 1929) was down 70% of the time, average loss of -.14%
- Looking at only weekday inaugurations:
- The Dow was down 72% of the time, average loss of -.48%
- The S&P was down 69% of the time, average loss of -.27%
- Looking at only regular on-cycle inaugurations:
- The Dow was down 74% of the time, average loss of -.23%
- The S&P was down 65% of the time, average gain of +.03%
- Looking at only regular on-cycle inaugurations that occurred on weekdays:
- The Dow was down 76% of the time, average loss of -.39%
- The S&P was down 64% of the time, average loss of -.08%
See how the markets performed for the rest of the year here
Before the open today the S&P futures are pointing down. Leading the Dow to the downside in the premarkets today are Bank of America [BAC
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], American Express [AXP
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], Citigroup [C
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], JP Morgan Chase [JPM
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] and Alcoa [AA
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].
Continue reading for some more incredible stats about today's inauguration.
Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes