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Both the S&P 500 and Dow are down another 6% for 2009. With the inauguration on Tuesday, will the markets bounce?
Strategy Session with the Fast Money Traders
I think the next 8 to 10 percent in the S&P will be higher, says Guy Adami. But from February on we could grind our way right back here.
For the next few weeks there won’t be much clarity on the stimulus, says Zach Karabell. You have to see how the stimulus enters the economy before you can make any smart market calls.
We need to see confidence come back to the market, adds Tim Seymour.
I wouldn’t grade Obama on the first few days of his presidency, adds Joe Terranova. But I do think the market is ready for a recovery.
BAILOUT WORLD
Britain launched a second bank rescue plan on Monday after finance minister Alistair Darling said fourth-quarter GDP figures out on Friday would confirm the UK was in recession for the first time since 1992.
Also, Royal Bank of Scotland [RBS
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] recorded the biggest loss in UK corporate history, sending its shares down 67 percent.
Meanwhile, HSBC [HBC
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] dropped 3 percent in overseas trading after it failed to shake off worries about its financial situation. HSBC was downgraded last week by Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs.
There’s weakness all around the world, muses Tim Seymour. A fear of nationalization has banking stocks lower all over the globe and I think we’re going to see some fall through in the US on Tuesday.
I still think Europe is in much worse shape then we are, adds Joe Terranova.
I’d hope that governments try to not erode equity value as they step in, says Zach Karabell.
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CHART OF THE DAY: WALL STREET ETF NEARING NEW LOW
The traders note that the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF [XLF
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] appears poised to make new lows.
Nov. 20th Closing Low: $9.39
Jan. 16th close: $9.68
The financials don't have to lead us higher, muses Guy Adami. But we do need them to stop declining. There is a bright spot. The short term credit markets are in good shape.
I also don’t think you need the financials to rally for the broader S&P to rally, concurs Zach Karabell.
Germany has outperformed the S&P over the last 5 years, says Tim Seymour. I think that has to change. For a trade I’d short the EWG [EWG
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] and get long the SPY [SPY
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].
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OIL TO SLIDE EVEN FURTHER?
Oil [US@CL.1
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] fell more than $2 toward $34 a barrel on Monday after Russia and Ukraine signed a 10-year gas deal clearing the way for the resumption of supplies to a freezing Europe.
Implementation of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza also eased supply concerns as the market remained under pressure from expectations that the weakening global economy would erode oil demand.
On Tuesday the Feb contract expires, says Joe Terranova. After that happens I expect oil prices to bottom.
Also gas and heating oil are trading well, adds Guy Adami. It might be time to look at the refiners.
The crack spreads are up, echoes Tim Seymour. And the integrated names look good to me. Check out Chevron [CVX
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] and Conoco Philips [COP
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], he says.
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TAKE YOUR POSITION: BIG EARNINGS THIS WEEK
Some of the biggest names in business report earnings this week. Is there a trade?
Tuesday: Johnson & Johnson, CSX, IBM
Wednesday: Apple, eBay
Thursday: Union Pacific, Google, Microsoft
Friday: GE
Out of everything that reports this week I like Johnson & Johnson [JNJ
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], says Guy Adami. I think they’re a great defensive play. Also look at Apple [AAPL
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] for a trade, he adds. I’d get long here with a stop out below $79.
I’d check out IBM [IBM
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], counsels Joe Terranova.
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CHARTOLOGY: INAUGURATION & THE MARKETS
Although the Dow usually trades lower on Inauguration Day, the blue chip index tends to trade higher in the first year of a presidency.
Dow on Inauguration Day
- Down 72% of the time
- Avg. Loss of 0.45%
Dow February to December After Inauguration:
- Up 63% of the time
- Avg. Gain of 5.88%
Markets do well in the first year because Congress tends to spend, says Zach Karabell. And this could be the mother of all spending plans.
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Trader disclosure: On Jan 19, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (AGU), (BTU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE); Karabell Owns (AAPL), (GOOG), (JPM), (TSO), (TC); Seymour Owns (AAPL), (BAC); Seygem Asset Management Owns (COP)
GE Is The Parent Company Of CNBC
Charles Schwab Is A Sponsor Of "Fast Money"
Terranova Works For (VRTS): Virtus Investment Partners Owns (XOM), (CSX), (FLR), (COP), (VLO), (X)
Terranova Is Chief Alternatives Strategist Of Virtus Investment Partners, Ltd.: Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (ABD), (ARE), (BIG), (DLR), (EPR), (EXR), (IGE), (SLB), (MAC), (DBC), (DBV), (SKT), (UA), (CLB)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of Seagate Tax Refund Rights: Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of Corporate Office Properties Trust SBI MD: Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of Goldman Sachs Financial Square Fund – Money Market Fund
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