Earnings Preview: IBM faces sales crunch in 4Q

SAN JOSE, Calif. - IBM Corp. reports its fourth-quarter earnings after the market closes Tuesday. Below is a summary of key developments and analyst opinion related to the period.

OVERVIEW: The freeze in information-technology spending plaguing many other big tech companies has cast a pall over IBM since the financial crisis worsened in late 2008. The stock fell for most of the fourth quarter, losing as much as a third of its value before rebounding somewhat in December.

IBM is famous for its aggressive cost-cutting, and some analysts believe big job cuts could be coming. IBM has declined to comment on any possible layoffs.

The disclosure of a huge financial fraud at Satyam Services Ltd., the big Indian outsourcing firm, in recent weeks has become a potentially lucrative source of revenue for IBM as clients look to defect.

BY THE NUMBERS: Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect IBM to earn $3.03 per share in the fourth quarter on $28.15 billion in revenue.

ANALYST TAKE: Thomas Weisel Partners analyst David Grossman wrote in a recent note to clients that he expects IBM's profit and forecast to beat the consensus analyst estimate and that "the market may be underestimating the stability of the company's operating model ... and underlying earnings power in 2009 (expense management)."

Richard Gardner, a Citi analyst, wrote that he expects IBM to outline "aggressive" cost-cutting plans. He added that he wouldn't be surprised if IBM announced job cuts affecting 3 percent to 5 percent of its nearly 387,000 workers.

WHAT'S AHEAD: Gardner cautioned that uncertainty about tech spending in 2009 will likely hold down IBM's shares in the $80-to-$90 range for several quarters.

STOCK PERFORMANCE: IBM's stock started the fourth quarter above $110 per share. Shares hit their 52-week low of $69.50 on Nov. 21. They have since recovered somewhat, finishing Friday's trading session at $84.92.

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