Pros Say: Oil, Gold, Yen Will Rule Future

Friday: The debate continues on how to tame the financial beast. Stocks were pressured by a 44% fall in General Electric* profit. But Wall Street and Washington now agree on the "bad bank" model, a government-run entity to buy troubled assets from banks and other struggling financial firms. And President Obama said a stimulus package will be ready by Presidents Day. CNBC heard from experts who said the future lies with gold, oil and the Japanese yen — but look out for China.

Moves on GE: Clues to Fundamental Change in Options Trading

Rebecca Darst of NYSE Euronext said she is newly aware of options traders doing "defensive buying" in GE options — and in options of other companies with exposure to financial services. She said she expects to see continued interest in March five-dollar puts. Darst quoted one options trader as saying, "Traders are trying to limit the damage now, not cause it." (What do options say about Genworth Financial?)

Yen, Gold, Oil Big Players in Global Economic Future (GE Less So)

DT Trading's Peter Yastrow said it was somewhat encouraging to see General Electric's results come in close to expectations; but GE has scaled back on its transparency, so it's no longer a bellwether for the general economy.

• Gold, Oil, NatGas Prices Now
• Dollar vs Yen, Euro, Pound

Ashraf Laidi of CMC Markets said the big winner in the current global environment is the yen, and gold appears to be headed back to 900. Cameron Hanover's Peter Beutel said we can expect to see a new oil squeeze, with emerging economies rebounding to compete with the U.S. for the same supplies.

White House China Moves Cause for Alarm...

David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors said Wall Street is rattled by what seems to be Treasury Secretary-designate Tim Geithner's launching of a trade war with China. There is more uncertainty in the re-configuration of the stimulus. Kotok said he was originally impressed by Geithner, but Geithner's tax problems and his currency position have given him second thoughts.

...and The Second-Half Recovery Looks Elusive

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's Lakshman Achuthan said he cannot rule out a second-half recovery, but there is absolutely no sign pointing that way in the leading economic indicators.
(See: "Stock Market's Next Bounce May Be Lower, Not Higher")

_____________________________________
CNBC Intelligence/Investment Tools:

• Read The CNBC Stock Blog
• World Commodities Prices Now
• Dow 30 Stocks in Real Time

_____________________________________
CNBC's Companies in the News: 

Bank of America

General Electric*

Pfizer

Microsoft 

Google

________________________________
Disclosures:

*General Electric is the parent company of CNBC.

© 2009 CNBC.com