Pros Say: Stimulus + Low Int. Rates = Late '09 Rebound

Monday: The Obama administration put off making a decision on "bad bank" creation, but said it'll deal with controversial Wall Street compensation. It was reported that global semiconductor sales fell 22 percent in December; Barclays predicted that Ford Motor — despite its confident outlook — will need government aid by year's end. CNBC heard from experts who said financials and the U.S. dollar are too uncertain to call, the fourth quarter looks awful — but a 2009 recovery is in the cards.

Q4 to Q1: Bad to Worse — But the Rebound's Coming

Michelle Girard of RBS Greenwich Capital said the first quarter will be as bad as — if not worse than — the fourth quarter. Demand has been falling even faster than manufacturers have been scaling back production. But the plunge in energy prices kept things from being even worse for the consumer in Q4. She doesn't think joblessness will get into double digits before the turnaround.

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The Henssler Financial Group's Gene Henssler said too much money is being injected into the economy for there not to be a turnaround by the end of 2009.

Counterpoint: Bad Stimulus Plan is Ignoring Real Problem

Encima Global's David Malpass said the stimulus package won't work. He said that if the Obama administration were on the right track, stocks would climb, since they're a leading indicator — but they're not. In fact, stocks have only gained on days when the market is in session but Congress is not. On the fiscal side, there is an argument for doing nothing right now, because it would focus attention where it belongs, on the credit situation.

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Outlook: Gasoline Up; Markets Down; Dollar..?

Liane Feldstein of Options City said the next round of economic data seems certain to push the market down; she sees nothing to inspire buyers. Cameron Hanover's Peter Beutel said gasoline prices are likely to keep climbing, despite sluggish crude oil prices. A refinery strike would definitely firm up prices.

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• Dollar vs Yen, Euro, Chinese Yuan

Boris Schlossberg of GFT Forex said the currency story is now survival, and the real question is: "What is the world like in a zero-yield environment?"

Good Bank, Bad Bank? Nationalization? Tread Carefully

We don't know what the banking system is going to look like on the far side of the current crisis, according to BlackRock's Bob Doll, so he remains very cautious on financial stocks. He agrees with David Malpass that the credit crisis must be resolved before any progress can be made.

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Doll disagrees with Art Cashin of UBS, who said last Friday that Dow 8,000 is a significant level. We are in a "multi-month bottoming process," and Doll is impressed that the market has repeatedly withstood the onslaughts of dreadful news.

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