Will the Markets See Their Shadow this Groundhog Day?

Monday, 2 Feb 2009 | 11:50 AM ET
Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day

It's Groundhog Day, the day meteorologists turn to these furry little prognosticators to determine whether Spring will come early or we will have another 6 weeks of Winter. If the groundhog sees its shadow, there are more cold days ahead.

So with the sun literally shining on Wall Street this morning, the odds of a shadow sighting are up and the Dow and S&P 500 are down as of midday trading. Here is a look at the historical relationship between Groundhog Day and the major US indices and whether the markets are in for more cold days ahead or not. For the S&P and Nasdaq , there are greater odds of an up day on February 2 than gaining over the following six weeks. For the Dow, the opposite is true.

Dow (since 1897):

  • February 2: Average gain of 0.05%, up 55.6% of the time
  • 6 weeks later: Average gain of 1.02%, up 60.3% of the time

S&P 500 (since 1928):

  • February 2: Average gain of 0.16%, up 64.4% of the time
  • 6 weeks later: Average gain of 1.24%, up 60.0% of the time

NASDAQ (since 1972):

  • February 2: Average gain of 0.13%, up 75.0% of the time
  • 6 weeks later: Average gain of 2.09%, up 65.0% of the time

All indices, however, have been up over the following 6 weeks more often than not. The Nasdaq has had the best gains on average in the 6 weeks that follow Groundhog Day. Today seems to be an up day for NASDAQ as well, with Akamai , Microsoft , Steel Dynamics , Express Scripts and Yahoo leading the NASDAQ 100 to the upside.

Comments? Send them to bythenumbers@cnbc.com


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