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Will the Markets See Their Shadow this Groundhog Day?
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Groundhog |
So with the sun literally shining on Wall Street this morning, the odds of a shadow sighting are up and the Dow [.DJIA
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] and S&P 500 [.SPX
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] are down as of midday trading. Here is a look at the historical relationship between Groundhog Day and the major US indices and whether the markets are in for more cold days ahead or not. For the S&P and Nasdaq [COMP
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], there are greater odds of an up day on February 2 than gaining over the following six weeks. For the Dow, the opposite is true.
Dow (since 1897):
- February 2: Average gain of 0.05%, up 55.6% of the time
- 6 weeks later: Average gain of 1.02%, up 60.3% of the time
S&P 500 (since 1928):
- February 2: Average gain of 0.16%, up 64.4% of the time
- 6 weeks later: Average gain of 1.24%, up 60.0% of the time
NASDAQ (since 1972):
- February 2: Average gain of 0.13%, up 75.0% of the time
- 6 weeks later: Average gain of 2.09%, up 65.0% of the time
All indices, however, have been up over the following 6 weeks more often than not. The Nasdaq has had the best gains on average in the 6 weeks that follow Groundhog Day. Today seems to be an up day for NASDAQ as well, with Akamai [AKAM
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], Microsoft [MSFT
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], Steel Dynamics [STLD
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], Express Scripts [ESRX
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] and Yahoo [YHOO
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] leading the NASDAQ 100 to the upside.
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Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes
