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Traders are scratching their heads over the action in oil prices. It seems like crude just can’t get out of its own way.
Remember last year when Abby Joseph Cohen said predicted that the average price of a barrel of oil would be about $115 or $120. And T. Boone Pickens said in ten years we’d have $300 oil.
It's true that on Friday oil [US@CL.1
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] jumped but that still only takes crude to about $38.
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What’s going on?
According to newly published reports, the reason oil can’t climb higher is because anemic demand has led to a record supply glut.
In fact, inventories at the storage hub at Cushing, Oklahoma -- the delivery point for U.S. crude futures -- have surged a whopping 139 percent taking the tanks to near capacity.
Analysts say that once the hub's tanks fill to the limit -- which at current rates could happen any time -- the scramble by suppliers to unload excess barrels could knock already depressed U.S. crude benchmark prices down further.
In other words, it’s that phenomenon that’s creating a resistance level for oil.
However Matt Simmons, one of the nation's most respected authorities on crude tells Fast Money the phenomenon is only temporary. He expects oil prices to come soaring back because “we’re laying our rigs down in this quiet period.”
He also tells us that oil markets in other parts of the world are pricing oil higher and suggests we should not place too much emphasis on the spot price of crude on the Nymex.
Joe Terranova and Tim Seymour agree, however it’s worth noting they’re both bullish on the global buildout.
What's the bottom line? When it comes to oil "we're hardly out of the woods," says Simmons. We’ll be watching.
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Trader disclosure: On Feb. 13th, 2008, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Terranova Owns (AMGN) & (AMGN) Puts; Terranova Owns (IBM) Call Spreads; Terranova Owns (XBI), (OTS), (FCX), (KCE); Finerman's Firm Owns (DNA) & (DNA) Call Spread; Finerman's Firm Owns (MSFT), (RIG), VNO); Finerman's Firm Is Short (BBT), (TM), (IYR), (IJR), (IWM), (MDY), (SPY), (COF), (USO); Macke Owns (AAPL), (MS), (TM), (SDS); Seymour Owns (AAPL), (BAC), (EEM), (FXI), (YUM); Seymour's Firm Owns (VIP)
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