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Is this stinky stock market making you gloomy? Well snap out of it!
Yes, we know that’s very Cher in “Moonstruck” but she was onto something, you know. By being down in the dumps, you’re making it worse.
And we’re not just saying that to give you a hard time. There’s scientific evidence that you’re too negative. Well, maybe not scientific evidence but according to Nate Silver, of the website FiveThirtyEight.com most of you are way too pessimistic about the economy.
And Silver should know, he’s one of the most accurate and respected pollsters working today.
He tells Fast Money that America’s economic expectations are so low – much lower than even the most pessimistic economists – that it may actually prolong the downturn.
"You can have panics where you have irrationality. I think the market is pretty cheap right now but people still think there will be a time to buy at a lower point," says Silver.
Silver might be onto something. Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors says much the same. "Even people who have money don't want to spend," says Naroff. "Until we stop the fall of confidence, this economy is going to remain in trouble."
It appears consumer confidence and investor confidence are in the same boat - and it's headed up river without a paddle.
As you probably know consumer confidence plunged to a record low this month – to its lowest levels since 1967. Of course it’s hard to be a cockeyed optimist when all you hear about is rising layoffs, slumping home prices and dwindling retirement accounts.
But it’s quite possible that our own negative outlook made those numbers worse than they would otherwise be.
However all hope is not lost. Nate Silver sees something of a silver lining. "When something perks up either consumer sentiment or if the stimulus works I think a recovery could happen relatively quickly because I think there’s some irrationality in the market."
So what should you do?
Think about the stimulus and the extra pocket money you’ll be getting from the Obama tax cuts. Or think about the fact that P/E levels for many stocks are at their lowest levels in a decade. Or think about hot cookies coming out of the oven and a cold glass of milk.
But whatever you do – turn that frown upside down and get happy!
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Trader disclosure: On Feb. 25th, 2008, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Najarian Owns (GE) Put Spread; Najarian Owns (DNA) Calls; Najarian Owns (FCX) & (FCX) Calls; Najarian Owns (GDX) & (GDX) Short Calls; Najarian Owns (HPQ) Calls; Najarian Owns (MSFT); Najarian Owns (MS) & (MS) Short Calls; Najarian Owns (X) Put Spread; Najarian Owns (WFC) & (WFC) Calls; Karabell Owns (AAPL), (BHP), (FCX), (GOOG), (GLD), (JPM); Macke Owns (MS), (TM), (SDS), (DIS); Finerman Owns (RIG), (DAI); Finerman's Firm Owns (DNA), (MSFT), (RIG); Finerman's Firm Is Short (IYR), (IJR), (IWM), (MDY), (SPY), (USO); Finerman's Firm Is Short (BBT); Finerman's Firm Owns (WFC) Preferred
CNBC.com with wires
Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes