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Charts: DJ Transport Index Signals a Bottom

CNBC.com
Tuesday, 10 Mar 2009 | 8:04 AM ET

The Dow Jones Transport Index, widely believed to be a predictor of where US markets are going, shows signs of bottoming out, Roelof van den Akker from ING Wholesale Banking told CNBC.

"For the first time since late 2007, we are changing our position on equities from underweight to neutral," Akker said. "There is solid horizontal support level around 1,900 to 2,000. We are only about 150 points away from this support level, and due to the steep decline shown on the chart, we are entering the final stages of this trend," he added.

US to Rally; Europe, Not so Much: Charts
According to the Dow Jones Transportation Index, US markets are approaching the final stages of this bear market and there could easily be a 50% rally towards the end of this year. However, the DAX and euro-dollar charts do not indicate any kind of long-term rally, Roelof van den Akker from ING Wholesale Banking explained.

There are currently no buy signals and no change in the trend, Akker said, but added that the final stages of the bear market may be taking place and that there could "easily be an increase of 50 percent bear market rally towards the end of this year to around the 3,000 level."

Even though Akker has positive feelings about US markets, in Europe things do not look so grand, especially for the DAX .

"There is not so much horizontal support at 3,600, but in order to establish a short term bottom, the index has to close above 3,870. That would create a possibility of a pull-back for the very short term to the horizontal resistance of 4,140," said Akker.

"This short term pull-back still offers the possibility of a final decline to 3,300 to 3,600 where the index should bottom out," Akkers added.

The DAX isn’t the only thing that Akkers expects to have a rough future; the euro-dollar exchange rates are also in for some difficulties.

"For the very short term, the euro-dollar has a dull trading range. The trading range is between $1.24 and $1.31 per euro . There could be a test of the upper end of the trading range in the short-term, but in the long term, a level of $1.18 dollars per euro cannot be ruled out," he concluded.

Contact Europe: Economy

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