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GOOD NEWS MUSTARD SEEDS ARCHIVE

Friday, May 1, 2009

ISM new orders
Consumer confidence
Low gas prices
Rapid money supply growth
Steep positive treasury curve
And a roaring stock market
Mid year recovery, positive second half..

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Stocks Up 20% From March 9 Bottom
Business Capex Durables Up In February
New Home Sales Up Last Month
Existing Home Sales Up Last Month
Record Low Mortgage Rates
Core Retail Sales Up 2 Months
CRB Commodities Up 9%
Upward Sloping Yield Curve
Near 20% M2 Growth
Banks Turning Profitable
Credit Spreads Declining
Energy Tax Cut
Dollar Up 3% YTD, 25% Past 12 Months

Friday, March 19, 2009

First, The U.S. Hedge funds are buying moe socks than they're selling... this for the first time since last October.
Second, despite yesterday's fed induced drop of ten year treasury rates, the curve is still positive and upward sloping. A good thing for bank profits.
Third, yes - the dollar has dropped in the last 24 hours, but it is still a strong 16% from its low of about a year ago.
And forth, though the leading indiciators index fell slightly in February, consumer goods orders, business cap-ex orders and building permits all registered gains for the first time in many, many months.

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

A surprising rebound in housing starts in February including single family starts and building permits. This could be a sign that home construction is bottoming and will end its negative effect on GDP.
A new January reading from the National Association of Realtors shows that housing affordability reached another all time high.
Producer prices rose slightly in February both for all finished goods and core prices ex-food and energy. I'm scoring this as a mustard seed because it takes the deflation threat off the table.
President Obama's budget does include a zero capital gains tax for small businesses under fifty million dollars. Let us be thankful for even small blessings.

Monday, March 16, 2009

Dr. Copper, often a leading economic indicator, rose 4.4% today and is up 38% since Christmas.
Thirty year mortgage rate closed at 5.09% today, way down from its 6.5% peak last Halloween. That contributes to record high housing affordability.
Team Obama has shifted gears from pessimism to optimism on the economy. They're even sounding like Senator John McCain in last fall's campaign saying the economy is fundamentally sound. Optimism is good.
The Rasmussen Consumer Index over the past week rose to its highest level since the November election. Scott Rasmussen reports that Obama optimism and the stock market rally had a positive impact.

Friday, March 13, 2009

Import inflation fell again in February and is now minus 12.8% over the past year. Great for consumers and businesses.

The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index improved slightly from optimisim about othe future.

The I-S-I Specialty Retailers Sales Survey is up about 30% from the bottom, that following THursday's second straight montly gain in core retail sales. (Hat Tip to Dougie Kass)

Top White House Economic Advisory Larry Summers says that consumer spending in the U.S., which was collapsing during the holiday season, appears to have stabilized (according to a number of indicators.)

Thursday, March 12, 2009

Core retail sales are up for the second straight month. Consumer spending in the first quarter GDP could actually be positive. The energy tax cut and big money growth is kicking in.

Used car sales up in January and February. Bodes well for auto recovery. (Hat Tip to Scott grannis of Calfia Beach Blog.)

Bank of America CEO Ken Lewis says he'll be profitable in Q1 joining Citi, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and others.

China's industrial production is rising including cement production. This follows strong car sales.

Federal Reserve's Ben Bernanke has agreed to a TV interview on "60 Minutes" this Sunday. Kudlow: "I think that's great. He should talk to the American public all the time. Including after ever fed meeting there should be a press conference."

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Mortgage applications up 11% this week including a 7% gain from purchase applications and a 13% rise in refi's. Those refi's are up 235% from thier low of last autumn.
Americans are driving again as gasoline demand is up 3% from the low. Think energy tax cut.
At lower prices, California and Florida home sales are soaring. (Hat tip to Mark Perry of Carpe Diem).
China is on the comback trail. Car sales surged 25% in February, the first gain in four months.

Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Consumer confidence poll up 1.6% in March, and it is above its December 2007 level when the recession began.
An optimistic European Central Bank head Jean-Claude Trichet says a turning point may be near, citing fiscal stimulus, low interest rates and cheaper energy prices that bolster prospects for growth.
Despite some back-up in credit markets financial spreads are significantly lower than the credit crunch peak of last October. This from Michael Darda.
Baltic Dry Index for commodity shipping stands at a five month high… Mark Perry
Gold dropped under nine hundred dollars today with a 22 dollar drop but king dollar is up 25% over the past year.

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