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Tech Check
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The NPD data about February Mac sales looks a little light, but it's nowhere near as bad as you might think. The market research shows Mac sales fell 16 percent even as Windows machines soared. At least that's how the shorts will spin it. But when you understand the numbers, the news might be merely "flat" as opposed to "good" or "bad."
Here's why: Wall Street already anticipated lousy February comp numbers because of last year's introduction of the MacBookAir, which set sales records instantly and drove enormous traffic to all things Apple [AAPL
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]. There simply was no way to beat, or even come close to, that performance so softness this time around was expected.
But this soft? No, not exactly.
Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster told me a few weeks ago that he expected a 12 percent decline in Mac sales, so 16 percent isn't good. Yet even with this drop off, he still anticipates more than 2 million Macs to sell this quarter. And when you consider how much more Macs cost compared to offerings from Hewlett-Packard, Dell, even Sony and others, 2 million Macs ain't so shabby. Not to mention that Apple released a refresh to the Mac line a couple of weeks ago, and February's slow sales may have come in part from customers waiting to buy the new stuff.
NPD also reported iPod sales down 16 percent, but the still-expected 9 - 10 million units sold during the quarter would still be in line with expectations.
At the same time, NPD says Windows based machines enjoyed big growth. Strip out so-called net books and the growth is far more subdued but still pretty strong. It stands to reason in these cost-conscious days that shoppers are buying on price and not necessarily value, since Macs tend to outperform and out innovate their Windows counterparts and that's why they command the premium they do.
Still, with rumors flying and now market research detailing the allure of net books, you gotta wonder whether Apple indeed is preparing a low cost Mac of its own. Steve Jobs is on the record as saying the margin-free net books just don't make a lot of sense, and they tend to be capability-light as well, a no-no in the Mac world. But in the same way Apple didn't invent the MP3 player, it just made it better, and in the same way it didn't invent the cell phone, it just made it better, Apple could go a long way toward net book nirvana by coming up with an inexpensive, but highly capable computer that hits the sweet spot of today's price — and value — conscious consumer.
There isn't much competition out there, at least as far as design and capability is concerned. The time might be ripe, and knowing Apple, there might even be some margins to exploit, something eluding its net book competitors already out there peddling cheap devices. This could be an interesting opportunity indeed.
(In my next post, a preview of today's iPhone event here in Cupertino.)
Questions? Comments?
Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes