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The debate is on whether the rally is real and markets will continue to climb from their March levels or will they retreat as this recent run has been a bear market trap. If history repeats itself, the odds are in favor of a positive April. Here are the historical averages for April and Q2 performance:
April Historical Performance:
- Dow (since 1897) [.DJIA
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]: - On average the Dow has gained 1.1% during April (and an avg of 1.5% after a positive March)
- Up 56% of the time, average gains of 4.63% when up (and an avg of 5.3% after a positive March)
- Down 44% of the time, average loss of -3.43% when down (and an avg of -2.8% after a positive March)
- The biggest April gain was in 1933, when the Dow finished up 31.95%
- The biggest April loss was in 1932, when the Dow finished down -23.68 %
- S&P (since 1928) [.SPX
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- On average the S&P has gained 1.16% during April (and an avg of 1.7% after a positive March)
- Up 62% of the time, average gains of 4.33% when up during April (and an avg of 4.4% after a positive March)
- Down 38% of the time, average loss of -3.96% when down during April (and an avg of -3.0% after a positive March)
- The biggest April gain was in 1933, when the S&P finished up 33.85%
- The biggest April loss was in 1932, when the S&P finished down -20.25%
- Nasdaq Composite (since 1971) [COMP
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- On average the Nasdaq has gained 1.22% during April (and an avg of 2.4% after a positive March)
- Up 63% of the time, average gains of 4.61% when up during April (and an avg of 4.4% after a positive March)
- Down 37% of the time, average loss of -4.6% when
- down during April (and an avg of -3.7% after a positive March)
- The biggest April gain was in 2001, when the Nasdaq finished up 15%
- The biggest April loss was in 2000, when the Nasdaq finished down -15.6%
S&P 500 Sectors (since 1990) April Avg
Energy +3.23
Materials +2.67
Industrials +1.86
Utilities +1.83
Financials +1.38
Info Tech +1.36
Healthcare +1.00
Consumer Disc +0.77
Consumer Stpls +0.43
Telecoms -0.03
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Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes