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Will Stocks Rise in April / Second Quarter?

The debate is on whether the rally is real and markets will continue to climb from their March levels or will they retreat as this recent run has been a bear market trap. If history repeats itself, the odds are in favor of a positive April. Here are the historical averages for April and Q2 performance:

April Historical Performance:

  • Dow (since 1897) :
    • On average the Dow has gained 1.1% during April (and an avg of 1.5% after a positive March)
    • Up 56% of the time, average gains of 4.63% when up (and an avg of 5.3% after a positive March)
    • Down 44% of the time, average loss of -3.43% when down (and an avg of -2.8% after a positive March)
    • The biggest April gain was in 1933, when the Dow finished up 31.95%
    • The biggest April loss was in 1932, when the Dow finished down -23.68 %
  • S&P (since 1928) :
    • On average the S&P has gained 1.16% during April (and an avg of 1.7% after a positive March)
    • Up 62% of the time, average gains of 4.33% when up during April (and an avg of 4.4% after a positive March)
    • Down 38% of the time, average loss of -3.96% when down during April (and an avg of -3.0% after a positive March)
    • The biggest April gain was in 1933, when the S&P finished up 33.85%
    • The biggest April loss was in 1932, when the S&P finished down -20.25%
  • Nasdaq Composite (since 1971) :
    • On average the Nasdaq has gained 1.22% during April (and an avg of 2.4% after a positive March)
    • Up 63% of the time, average gains of 4.61% when up during April (and an avg of 4.4% after a positive March)
    • Down 37% of the time, average loss of -4.6% when
    • down during April (and an avg of -3.7% after a positive March)
    • The biggest April gain was in 2001, when the Nasdaq finished up 15%
    • The biggest April loss was in 2000, when the Nasdaq finished down -15.6%

S&P 500 Sectors (since 1990) April Avg
Energy +3.23
Materials +2.67
Industrials +1.86
Utilities +1.83
Financials +1.38
Info Tech +1.36
Healthcare +1.00
Consumer Disc +0.77
Consumer Stpls +0.43
Telecoms -0.03

Q2 Historical Averages

Second Quarter Historical Stats:
Dow:
- On average the Dow has gained 1.69% in the second quarter
- Up 57% of the time, average gains of 8.1% when up during Q2
- Down 43% of the time, average loss of -6.87%, when down during Q2
- The biggest Q2 gain was in 1933, when the Dow finished up 77.15%
- The biggest Q2 loss was in 1932, when the Dow finished down -41.54%

S&P:
- On average the S&P has gained 2.22% in the second quarter
- Up 57% of the time, average gains of 8.91% when up during Q2
- Down 43% of the time, average loss of -6.56% when down during Q2
- The biggest Q2 gain was in 1933, when the S&P finished up 86.5%
- The biggest Q2 loss was in 1932, when the S&P finished down -39.4%

Nasdaq:
- On average the Nasdaq has gained 3.36% in the second quarter
- Up 68% of the time, average gains of 8.55% when up during Q2
- Down 32% of the time, average loss -7.86% when down during Q2
- The biggest Q2 gain was in 2003, when the Nasdaq finished up 21%
- The biggest Q2 loss was in 2002, when the Nasdaq finished down -20.71%

>>> March & Q1 Winners and Losers

>>> More Q1 Stats

Comments? Send them to bythenumbers@cnbc.com

bythenumbers.cnbc.com

Symbol
Price
 
Change
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DJIA
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S&P 500
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NASDAQ
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