GO
Loading...

Will Stocks Rise in April / Second Quarter?

Tuesday, 31 Mar 2009 | 12:42 PM ET

The debate is on whether the rally is real and markets will continue to climb from their March levels or will they retreat as this recent run has been a bear market trap. If history repeats itself, the odds are in favor of a positive April. Here are the historical averages for April and Q2 performance:

April Historical Performance:

  • Dow (since 1897) :
    • On average the Dow has gained 1.1% during April (and an avg of 1.5% after a positive March)
    • Up 56% of the time, average gains of 4.63% when up (and an avg of 5.3% after a positive March)
    • Down 44% of the time, average loss of -3.43% when down (and an avg of -2.8% after a positive March)
    • The biggest April gain was in 1933, when the Dow finished up 31.95%
    • The biggest April loss was in 1932, when the Dow finished down -23.68 %
  • S&P (since 1928) :
    • On average the S&P has gained 1.16% during April (and an avg of 1.7% after a positive March)
    • Up 62% of the time, average gains of 4.33% when up during April (and an avg of 4.4% after a positive March)
    • Down 38% of the time, average loss of -3.96% when down during April (and an avg of -3.0% after a positive March)
    • The biggest April gain was in 1933, when the S&P finished up 33.85%
    • The biggest April loss was in 1932, when the S&P finished down -20.25%
  • Nasdaq Composite (since 1971) :
    • On average the Nasdaq has gained 1.22% during April (and an avg of 2.4% after a positive March)
    • Up 63% of the time, average gains of 4.61% when up during April (and an avg of 4.4% after a positive March)
    • Down 37% of the time, average loss of -4.6% when
    • down during April (and an avg of -3.7% after a positive March)
    • The biggest April gain was in 2001, when the Nasdaq finished up 15%
    • The biggest April loss was in 2000, when the Nasdaq finished down -15.6%

S&P 500 Sectors (since 1990) April Avg
Energy +3.23
Materials +2.67
Industrials +1.86
Utilities +1.83
Financials +1.38
Info Tech +1.36
Healthcare +1.00
Consumer Disc +0.77
Consumer Stpls +0.43
Telecoms -0.03

Q2 Historical Averages

Second Quarter Historical Stats:
Dow:
- On average the Dow has gained 1.69% in the second quarter
- Up 57% of the time, average gains of 8.1% when up during Q2
- Down 43% of the time, average loss of -6.87%, when down during Q2
- The biggest Q2 gain was in 1933, when the Dow finished up 77.15%
- The biggest Q2 loss was in 1932, when the Dow finished down -41.54%

S&P:
- On average the S&P has gained 2.22% in the second quarter
- Up 57% of the time, average gains of 8.91% when up during Q2
- Down 43% of the time, average loss of -6.56% when down during Q2
- The biggest Q2 gain was in 1933, when the S&P finished up 86.5%
- The biggest Q2 loss was in 1932, when the S&P finished down -39.4%

Nasdaq:
- On average the Nasdaq has gained 3.36% in the second quarter
- Up 68% of the time, average gains of 8.55% when up during Q2
- Down 32% of the time, average loss -7.86% when down during Q2
- The biggest Q2 gain was in 2003, when the Nasdaq finished up 21%
- The biggest Q2 loss was in 2002, when the Nasdaq finished down -20.71%

>>> March & Q1 Winners and Losers

>>> More Q1 Stats

Comments? Send them to bythenumbers@cnbc.com

bythenumbers.cnbc.com

  Price   Change %Change
DJIA
---
S&P 500
---
NASDAQ
---

Featured