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CNBC.com |
Top industry sources tell me the new Blackberry, with no official name, will be exclusively available on Verizon when it comes to the US, and should be available, I'm told, "in the next few months."
Think about that for a second. The best of both of worlds: the touchpad of the Apple iPhone, the gorgeous screen of the Bold and full keypad for those of us who crave it.
"It would be the answer for RIM to Palm's Pre at Sprint," says Pablo Perez-Fernandez, GC Research's principal wireless analyst. "It would be a huge hit."
AT&T will have its touchscreen superstar in the iPhone; Sprint will get the Pre; and Verizon gets to replace the lousy Storm with something that could be truly blockbuster.
There have been rumors and rumblings about a hybrid Blackberry for months, Perez-Fernandez tells me, but chatter has dropped off to almost nothing recently. CrackBerry.com was the first to come up with the goods about this a couple of weeks ago, displaying what looks like the packaging for what had been called the "Pluto," but is now being referred to as the "99xx." The device doesn't feature a trackball, deferring instead to the touch screen. CrackBerry reports that the phone is slated for a "late third quarter release" in Canada. My source tells me it will be available through Verizon in the US far sooner than that.
That news comes on the day RIM is readying its earnings release, and this company has become the poster-boy for big-time momentum: Here's a company that guided the Street not too long ago to the low end of expectations, or about 83 cents a share; and despite that guidance, the Street is even lower with a consensus estimate of 82 cents; revenue should also be low; subscribers and units shipped also toward the low end.
Hold the phone!
Over the past week or so, and certainly over the past month, RIM has begun to surge. Its 6 percent move today brings its 30-day gains to 31 percent, and now there's a growing sentiment today that the company will surprise. Was RIM ripping a page from the Apple Inc. playbook, sandbagging expectations and getting ready to knock the cover off the ball? Maybe. It certainly seems like the pieces of the puzzle are in place for a beat-and-raise quarter, and that would be noteworthy in an economy like this one, even as Apple's iPhone continues to generate huge buzz.
The numbers to watch out for today: that 82 cents a share on $3.35 billion for the company's fourth fiscal quarter; 7.5 million units shipped and 3.5 million new subscribers added, along with 40 percent gross margins. Guidance will be absolutely key as well: Look for something around 83 - 89 cents a share on $3.4 billion to $3.6 billion in revenue; expectations of 7.6 million to 8 million units shipped and the addition of 3 million new subscribers.
So now the question is how RIM can keep this momentum going. With smart phones only penetrating about 10 percent of the global handset market so far, most analysts seem to agree that there's plenty of room for multiple success stories. In other words, just because Blackberrys are selling, doesn't mean iPhones won't. And just because the Palm Pre, with no price and no release date yet, is coming, that doesn't mean that market share will be taken from RIM and Apple. That might explain why despite what appears to be virtual euphoria surrounding RIM right now, Apple is surging, and big.
RIM's guidance will be key. It'll be interesting to see whether anyone asks about this new Blackberry on the conference call as well. We'll of course have complete coverage.
Questions? Comments?





