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The market has shrugged off some pretty gloomy economic data. But can it ignore a bad jobs report?
Investors are keeping a close eye on that very issue with employment numbers due out Friday at 8:30am.
Although job losses are already baked into the market, the question becomes, to what degree?
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Economists forecast employers cut 654,000 jobs in March, while the unemployment rate increased to 8.5 percent from 8.1 percent, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters.
However, late week chatter began to surface that those numbers may be too low – that the employment situation is even more dire than the dismal numbers you see above.
The reason that’s particularly concerning is that lately the market has been shrugging off bad news. Take a look:
DATE BAD NEWS GOOD MARKET
March 12 GE Credit Downgrade Dow +240
March 26 Final Q4 GDP Down 6.3% Dow +175
March 31 Record Drop in Home Prices Dow +87
April 1 ADP: Employment Drops 742K Dow +153
But it might not be able to shrug off a very bad employment number.
As a result, the way the market reacts to Friday’s jobs number could change the momentum of the market.
What should you expect?
Ahead of the live show Joe LaVorgna, Deutsche Bank Chief U.S. Economist, told our Fast Money producers to be prepared for a sell-off.
“I am expecting unemployment to come in at 8.6%,” he said, a little higher than estimates, but it will probably be enough to spark a sell-off.
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Trader disclosure: On Apr 2nd, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Macke Owns (WFC), (AAPL), (GE), (GS), (MOS), (WMT); Adami Owns (AGU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE), (BTU); Kinahan Owns (AA), (BAC), (C), (MSFT), (YHOO); Finerman's Firm Is Short (IJR), (MDY), (SPY), (USO), (IWM), (BAC), (BBT), (WFC); Finerman's Firm Owns (MSFT), (PBR), (RIG), (AXYS), (SRS); Finerman's Firm Owns (WFC) Preferred, (BAC) Preferred, (BAC) Preferred
CNBC.com with wires
Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes