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Investors are wondering if the current run in stocks is done. Just a few days ago, the bulls were celebrating the biggest four-week rally in 70 years and looked like they were on an unstoppable rampage. In fact, the S&P [.SPX
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] jumped nearly 25% on manufacturing data and new home sales that offered just a faint glimmer of optimism.
But a harsh reality check is probably on the way. We call it earnings season.
And the facts and figures suggest it could be a slaughter in the making.
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Although the S&P has shrugged off a spate of negative economic numbers, analysts warn that worse-than-expected reports could be the proverbial straw that breaks the camel’s back and triggers the next leg down.
And if history is any indication – it could be brutal. Over the last two earnings seasons, the S&P 500 has shed a staggering 9% both times, as dreadful profits and even more dreadful forecasts, left investors howling for relief.
But even more important than companies' results will be their forecasts for the remainder of the year. Sectors that will be in particular focus include banking, retail, technology and industrial.
As earnings season gets underway Tuesday David Kelly, JPMorgan Funds chief market strategist tells the Fast Money desk to ignore history - don't use it as a guide.
“We’ve not had an earnings season where the market has been this cheap based on long term fundamentals," he explains. "I wouldn’t want to be out of this market," fearing that historically it's gone down.
In fact, Kelly is quite bullish on stocks. He thinks if you’re in a position where you can buy a stock and hold it for a while -- and by a while he means 5-10 years -- on the other side, you’ll come out a winner.
“In the short term you need to be tactical but if in for the long run it’s all about fundamentals and fundamentally stocks are cheap.”
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Trader disclosure: On Apr. 6th, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Macke Owns (WFC), (AAPL), (SDS), (GS), (MOS), (WMT); Seymour Owns (AAPL), (BAC), (EEM), (FCX), (FXI), (F), (MSFT); Terranova Owns (KCE), (AMGN), (IBM), (HESS), (BRCM), (DIS), (DELL), (JPM), (INTC), (X), (JOYG), (WYNN); Terranova owns (COP) Calls; Terranova Owns (POT) & (POT) Calls; Terranova owns (XOM) & (XOM) Calls; Karabell Owns (AAPL), (CSCO), (FCX), (FXI), (GOOG), (JPM), (NOK), (NVDA)
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