Strategy Session with the Fast Money Traders
It seems to me that investors still don’t believe this rally, says Joe Terranova. Technically I see no reason for it to end. I see higher highs and lower lows. If you’re still nervous and want a trailing stop in the S&P it’s 830.
When the bar is set so low it doesn’t take much to beat, counters Tim Seymour. And when firms beat you get a great week but I’m concerned that there could be minefields to come.
I can’t help but wonder if we’re overshooting too, muses Pete Najarian. We overshot to the downside and maybe we are overshooting to the upside. However, one sign that suggests the rally could continue, comes from the decline in the Vix, he adds. It tells me that investors are a little less fearful.
Melissa Lee reminds the panel that NYSE CEO Duncan Niederauer is cautious about this rally. In an interview earlier he told CNBC, "the volume in March hasn't convinced me that its the kind of volume that you would need to see to believe that it was the real beginning of the turnaround. My instincts tell me that were going to retrace one more time and the rally I'll believe is the summer rally."
MORGAN LEAD BANK BREAKOUT
Shares of Morgan Stanely made substantial gains on Friday, with investors betting that this firm, like some other banks, could wow the Street when the report earnings, next week.
However, shares of Citigroup dropped as news of a smaller-than-expected first-quarter loss was overshadowed by comments from the company that consumer credit deterioration remained a worry.
The big banks are earning income from the trading environment, reminds Joe Terranova. And Morgan Stanley has one of the better collection of traders on the Street. I think they could show a lot of profit when they report next week.
The regional banks are exploding higher too, adds Pete Najarian. The action in BB&T as well as Regions are impressive. I think the regional banks might have been the baby thrown out with the bathwater.
GOOGLE ENDS VOLATILE DAY HIGHER
On the Nasdaq, Google ended in positive territory after posting a stronger than expected profit report and shares of Apple also drove the tech heavy index and investors made bullish bets on Apple ahead of its quarterly results next week.
It seems to me that Google is not going to reverse and roll over, muses Joe Terranova. They are growing and a premium is paid for growth. I think Google shots above $400 next week.
I also think there’s more upside in Google, adds Pete Najarian.
I’d keep an eye on Priceline and Nefflix, adds Zach Karabell. Granted these names have had a big run, but the fact that they’re working at all makes them interesting long term.
COMMODITIES CANARY IN COAL MINE?
Copper traded lower for a second day on Friday , after data showing a slower rate of expansion in China's economy and a steep decline in U.S. housing starts encouraged some investor profit-taking.
The demand in copper just isn’t there, says Tim Seymour. I’d be careful of Southern Copper and Freeport McMorRan, although I’m not bearish on all metals, by any means.
I think it's okay to play this space, counters Pete Najarian provided you do it by getting long either stock mentioned above and also buying puts for downside protection.
Meanwhile oil closed modestly higher however, "oil continues to wallow in a tight trading range, lacking any real conviction on whether to move higher or lower," says Phil Flynn, analyst at Alaron Trading.
Any attempt at a sustained move higher by oil prices has been checked by crude inventories that are near 19-year highs and shrinking demand forecasts for 2009.
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Trader disclosure: On Apr 17th, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Seymour Owns (AAPL), (BAC), (EEM), (FCX), (GE), (RIG), (TCK); Karabell Owns (AAPL), (CSCO), (CAT), (FCX), (FXI), (FIC), (GOOG), (JPM); Najarian Owns (BX) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (INTC) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (MCD) & (MCD) Calls; Najarian Owns (PALM); Najarian Owns (RIO) Calls; Najarian owns (VAR) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (XHB) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (PCU) Calls; Terranova Owns (AMGN), (DELL), (IBM), (BP), (MS); Terranova Owns (X) & (X) Calls; Terranova Owns (DIS) Calls; Terranova Owns (COP) Calls; Terranova Owns (HES) & (HES) Calls; Terranova Owns (JPM) & (JPM) Calls; Terranova Owns (INTC) & (INTC) Calls; Terranova Owns (XOM) & (XOM) Calls; Terranova Owns (WYNN) & (WYNN) Calls
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