CNBC.com

"First, let me say that I have learned the hard way that when it comes to Apple, just about anything is possible. Which is to say that despite the company's denials or confirmations depending upon what the story might be, they might be either true or false. In fact, Apple rarely confirms or denies any rumors of any kind so those of us covering it have a tendency to feel our way through the dark. You honestly never truly know until you truly know. That goes for new products as well as Steve Jobs' health status."

And that brings us to today, with a new round of rumors swirling that Apple has entered into negotiations with Verizon to offer a new iPhone and a new tablet device, what BusinessWeek calls a "media pad" that plays music, videos and displays digital photos. The BusinessWeek story follows a similar story in USA Today yesterday that Apple and Verizon had opened up discussions.

All of this comes as speculation begins to grow that Apple might be interested in ending its exclusivity arrangement with AT&T, since the partnership's original contract ends next year. I asked Apple this morning if the exclusivity deal with AT&T and iPhone covers just that one product or all wireless devices that Apple might want to release, such as a new version of iPhone, or that media pad referenced above. Apple won't comment at all about the terms of its deal with AT&T.

That said, the rumors over a potential deal with Verizon gained a certain level of credence with BusinessWeek reporting that in a recent interview, Verizon Wireless CEO Lowell McAdam "confirmed that the company has spoken with Apple executives. 'In the last six months, I have talked to Steve Jobs,'" he's reported as saying. He wouldn't say what he talked about, but sources indicated that the subject was a kind of iPhone "lite" under development.

All of this would be intriguing if it didn't come against a backdrop of some unusually specific and public comments from Apple about AT&T, not months ago, but just last week following both companies' earnings report. AT&T reported that iPhone was an enormous success, selling 1.6 million units during the quarter, and far out-selling all other handsets the carrier offers. That very same day, Apple's chief operating officer Tim Cook told analysts on the company's conference call that, "We're very happy with the relationship that we have (with AT&T) and do not have a plan to change it." And while that might sound PR-esque, Cook goes a big step further, reiterating Apple's consistent message since iPhone's original release that Apple was keenly interested in a "world phone," and that AT&T's GSM network was the only wireless game in town for such a capability. Unless Apple has done a whip-lash inducing about-face, and has somehow suddenly decided to embrace CDMA, the transition to Verizon is really a moot point.

The chances that Apple would develop two versions of the same phone for two competing wireless platforms is slim to nil. At best.

Forget "sources" inside Apple for a moment. The company itself is trying to get out in front of this story by stating categorically and on the record that "CDMA, after a certain amount of time, well, there's no future there," which is what Tim Cook has also said before. Apple won't comment on these specific rumors, but instead reiterates the powerful partnership it enjoys with AT&T as way to diffuse this story.

Officially from Apple this morning: "AT&T is a very good partner and we believe that they're the best wireless provider in the US. They have done a very good job with iPhone, putting the full force and weight of their company behind it. We're very happy with the relationship that we have and do not have a plan to change it." And this: "From a technology point of view, Verizon is on CDMA and we chose from the beginning of the iPhone to go with GSM and focus on one phone for the whole of the world. We believe that CDMA doesn't really have a life to it after a point in time."

So like I said at the beginning, anything's possible. This is more a case of what's "likely" versus "unlikely." At this point, based on the facts and statements from AT&T, Apple, and even Verizon's nebulous we've-talked-but-we're-not-saying-what-about comments, I have to believe an iPhone deal with Verizon falls squarely in the camp of "unlikely."

Check out:

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