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HALFTIME REPORT:...ALMOST BACK IN BLACK
Around lunchtime the broad S&P 500 [.SPX
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] was at its highest level since early January and less than 1 percent away from turning positive for the year. Since the March 9 bear market closing low, the index is up 32.5 percent.
How should you trade?
Strategy Session with the Fast Money Traders
I’ve said it before, but I still think there are trillions of dollars sitting on the sidelines that are about to come into this market. If and when that happens, it should chase the S&P even higher, muses Joe Terranova. I’m keeping an eye on two events this week, he adds, unemployment figures and the results of the stress tests. If they’re not bearish I think we could see price action well north of 900 in the S&P [.SPX
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].
I agree wholeheartedly with Joe, echoes Mike Khow of Cantor Fitzgerald.
The rally off the March lows looks in tact to me, adds Bill Strazzullo of Bell Curve Trading. I think the S&P runs to 950 – 970 and 9400 in the Dow [.DJIA
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]. But I wouldn’t be a buyer at current levels. I think we’ll see a pull back to 840 in the S&P.
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IS THE WORST OF HOUSING CRISIS OVER?
Investor sentiment was also buoyed after positive economic data showed pending sales of existing homes rose in March.
The National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed in March, rose 3.2 percent to 84.6. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast pending home sales to be flat.
I think it’s a good time to take a look at housing, counsels Jared Levy, however play moderately. Only add to your position on pullbacks
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BANKING STOCKS SURGE
Bank stocks [XLF
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] moved higher Monday as as investors bet the government's stress tests won't be that bad for banks.
I have a position in Morgan Stanley [MS
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], explains Joe Terranova because I’ve done my own stress tests and I like the way they look.
Meanwhile investors are keeping an eye on Wells Fargo [WFC
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]. Over the week-end billionaire investor Warren Buffett expressed confidence in this company, yet regulators have told the bank to shore up its finances after government stress tests showed they would have trouble surviving a deeper recession.
I’m seeing options investors selling out of the money puts in the stock, but allowing for upside, explains Jared Levy. To me it suggests big investors are moderately bullish.
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THE OBAMA TRADE: TAX CRACKDOWN
President Obama is cracking down on taxes and on Monday proposed changing provisions in the tax code that he says encourage U.S. companies to move jobs overseas.
The plan also would make it harder for individuals to stash money in overseas accounts to avoid taxation
Both initiatives are part of a broader package aimed at saving $210 billion over 10 years.
I think the move puts a “W” recovery on the table, says Joe Terranova. In other words, an increase in taxes would cause a second leg down with trouble hitting in 2011.
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TOPPING THE TAPE: COAL STOCKS ON FIRE
Goldman Sachs upgraded its Americas coal coverage view to "attractive" from "neutral," and said it expects demand to rise and prices to stabilize. The upgrade sent coal stocks soaring Monday.
Expectations for China's economic growth will rise in the coming months, which could improve global demand for metallurgical coal, Goldman Sachs analyst Brian Singer wrote in a note to clients.
Shares of coal miner Massey Energy [MEE
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] were up as much as 20 percent, while those of Foundation Coal Holdings [FCL
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], the fourth largest coal producer in the United States, were up as much as 16 percent.
When I look at how these names are moving, it says to me take profits, counsels Pete Najarian. The Market Vectors Coal ETF [KOL
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] is current trading at its 200-day moving average. If it can’t get through that area, it would make me wonder how much of a pullback lies ahead,. But if it can get higher then there could be more upside.
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CNBC.com with wires
Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes