Art Cashin: If Jobs Drop, Hide in Your 'Storm Shelter'
Stocks opened higher Wednesday and the S&P 500 (as of this writing) is positive again for 2009. Will it hold?
Arthur Cashin, UBS Financial Services director of floor operations, offered his insights to CNBC.
News that April layoffs were less painful than predicted, combined with "the ADP number — that cheered people up," said Cashin.
He also cited "the Bank of America situation," in which the financial giant's $34 billion capital gap turned out to be much smaller than many analysts had feared.
- BofA Shares Rise as Stress Test Fears Abate
- Barclays: Expect ‘Surprising Rebound’ in Late '09
But Cashin isn't so sure the storm has passed:
"You can't forget that we lost about 2 million jobs so far this year and about 3 million last year. You have to wonder if the patient gives enough blood up — even though he's stopped hemorrhaging — that he goes into shock."
"I don't know if it's time to open the bubbly just yet."
And if Friday's jobs number turns out to be worse than the ADP figure indicates?
"Then it's time to grab Toto, Auntie Em and Uncle Henry and go to your storm shelter," Cashin warned.
He has one piece of advice: "You want to pay attention to the bond market." He said bonds "are much less cheery than the stock market" — and the bond market has "been right the last 16 months."
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