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Considering the S&P is up 35% from its bear market low -- and up 5% this month alone – we can’t help but wonder, is the run sustainable?
According to Christopher Zook, CIO of Caz Investments you’d better buckle up; the market could be heading for a 50% retracement. That’s right – 50% of its gains over the last 8 weeks could soon be wiped out.
“There’s a whole lot of money on the sidelines that is worried the train has left the station without them," he explains on Fast Money. In other words they're fearful they’re missing this move.
“After being down last year there’s no way money managers can excuse being down this year and not participating in the rally. So we’re seeing panic buying which leads me to believe the rally is almost finished.”
He also says that history is not with the bulls. Bear market rallies are typically about 8 weeks long and that’s about the current timeline. “This is typical. Everybody starts getting bullish,” right before the next leg down.
If that's the case, what should you do?
“I’d start buying puts or have stops on your trades,” he counsels so when the market turns lower you’re prepared.
If you’re looking for some trades Zook says, “we like oil services [OIH
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] and healthcare [XLV
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] and some areas of technology [XLK
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]. But I wouldn’t allocate new capital until you see a pull back.”
What’s the bottom line? Short term we’re definitely going to correct, says Zook.
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Trader disclosure: On May 6th, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Macke Owns (WFC), (GS), (SDS), (AGU), (PCLN), (GE); Seymour Owns (AAPL), (BAC), (F), (FXI), (RIG), (TM), (TSO); Finerman's Firm Owns (BAC) Preferred Shares And Is Short (BAC) Stock; Finerman's Firm Owns (CSCO); Finerman's Firm Owns (MSFT) And (MSFT) Put Spreads; Finerman's Firm Owns (PM); Finerman's Firm Owns (PBR); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (RIG); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (WFC) Preferred Shares; Finerman's Firm Is Short (IJR), (MDY), (SPY), (IWM), (USO); Najarian Owns (BX) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (DFS) Calls; Najarian Owns (EWZ) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (FIG); Najarian Owns (MS) And Is Short (MS) Calls; Najarian Owns (MCD) And Is Short (MCD) Calls; Najarian Owns (NVDA) And Is Short (NVDA) Calls; Najarian Owns (TSO) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (XLI) Put Spread; Najarian Owns (XHB) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (XLF) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (BYD) Calls
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For Christopher Zook
Zook Owns (LLY), CAZ Investments Owns (LLY) For Its Own Account, CAZ Investments Has Bought (LLY) For Clients
Zook Owns (WAT), CAZ Investments Owns (WAT) For Its Own Account, CAZ Investments Has Bought (WAT) For Clients
Zook Owns (WFT), CAZ Investments Owns (WFT) For Its Own Account, CAZ Investments Has Bought (WFT) For Clients
Zook Owns (RIG), CAZ Investments Owns (RIG) For Its Own Account, CAZ Investments Has Bought (RIG) For Clients
CNBC.com with wires
Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes