Jobs Report Giving Investors Mixed Picture On US Economy

The latest jobs report gave a mixed picture of employment in the US, leaving investors without any clear sign that the economy is improving.

The pace of layoffs slowed in April when employers cut 539,000 jobs, the fewest in six months. But the unemployment rate climbed to 8.9 percent, the highest since late 1983, as many businesses remain wary of hiring given all the economic uncertainties.

“This is a truly awful report that will likely be taken as a good report because the job losses have slowed,” Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors, wrote in a note to clients.

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The Labor Department tally released Friday wasn't nearly as deep as the 620,000 job cuts that economists were expecting, and was helped by a burst of government hiring.

The rise in the unemployment rate from 8.5 percent in March matched economists' forecasts.

Market reaction to the numbers when they came out was somewhat muted. Art Cashin, director of floor operations at UBS Financial Services told CNBC Friday that traders are skeptical for two reasons. (See video for full interview)

"The job numbers are suspect," Cashin said. "You have revisions that came out, with March being up to 700,000. And you have the census hires. The government is hiring people to take the census and that makes the numbers suspect."

Cashin told CNBC the other reason is that there's a good news, bad news effect on the markets.

"We have a tug of war," Cashin said. "If you get good news for the economy that should help stocks. But it will hurt bonds, yields will go up and that will tug backwards on stocks."

The new report underscored the toll the longest recession since World War II has taken on America's workers and companies. However, the slowdown in layoffs may bolster expectations that the worst of the downturn's hefty job losses are past.

"There are glimmers of hope. We are moving in the right direction in terms of layoffs. They are measurably less bad than what we've been through," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com.

Still, companies will remain cautious in hiring, making it harder for laid-off workers to find new jobs.

If laid-off workers who have given up looking for new jobs or have settled for part-time work are included, the unemployment rate would have been 15.8 percent in April, the highest on records dating back to 1994.

The total number of unemployed now stands at 13.7 million, up from 13.2 million in March.

Companies also kept a tight rein on workers hours. The average work week in April stayed at 33.2 hours, matching the record low set in March. Since the recession began in December 2007, the economy has lost a net total of 5.7 million jobs.

As the recession eats into sales and profits, companies have turned to layoffs and other cost-cutting measures to survive the storm. Those including holding down workers' hours, and freezing or cutting pay.

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Job losses in February and March turned out to be deeper, according to revised figures. Employers cut 681,000 positions in February, 30,000 more than previously reported.

They cut 699,000 jobs in March, more than the 663,000 first reported. The deepest job cuts of the recession —741,000 came in January. That was the most since the fall of 1949.

Employers last month cut the fewest jobs since 380,000 in October. Nonetheless, the April job losses were widespread. Construction companies axed 110,000 jobs, down from 135,000 in March. Factories got rid of 149,000 jobs, down form 167,000 the month before.

Retailers cut payrolls by nearly 47,000, less than the nearly 64,000 cut in March. And job losses in financial activities dropped by 40,000, down from 43,000 in the previous month.

The slower pace of job losses—along with 72,000 more government jobs—helped to temper the overall payroll reductions in April.

Looking ahead, economists expect monthly job losses continuing for most—if not all—of this year. However, they are hoping the reductions won't be as deep.

Fallout from housing, credit and financial crises—the worst since the 1930s—has hurt America's workers and companies, and the pain will continue. The jobs market traditionally doesn't rebound until well after an economic recovery starts.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke earlier this week gave his most optimistic prediction yet about the end of the recession, saying he expects the economy to start growing again this year—although the comeback could be weak and more jobs will disappear even after a recovery takes hold.

Companies will have little appetite to ramp up hiring until they feel the economy is truly out of the woods and a recovery is firmly rooted.

Against that backdrop, many economists predict the unemployment rate will hit 10 percent by the end of this year.

Bernanke stopped short of that figure, saying it will be somewhere in the 9 percent range.

Regardless, both private economists and Bernanke agree the unemployment rate will keep climbing into next year. The Fed says unemployment will remain elevated into 2011.

Economists say the job market may not get back to normal—meaning a 5 percent unemployment rate—until 2013. And the job cuts have continued this week.

Steelmaker Severstal International said it's idling plants in Wheeling, W.Va., and Warren, Ohio, resulting in 3,100 layoffs due to the continuing deterioration of the steel industry.

Microsoft said it was starting thousands of the 5,000 job cuts it announced in earlier this year and left the door open to even more layoffs.

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Still, glimmers of hope have emerged that the recession may be losing its grip on the country.

The Labor Department on Thursday said the number of newly laid-off workers filing applications for jobless benefits plunged to the lowest level in 14 weeks, a possible sign that the massive wave of layoffs has peaked.

Still, the number of unemployed workers drawing benefits climbed to a new record -- 6.35 million. Other reports showed sales at many retailers fared better in April, with Wal-Mart leading the way.

In the U.S., the economy shrank at faster than a 6 percent annual rate late last year and early this year, the worst six-month performance since the late 1950s. Analysts think it is still shrinking now—but probably at about half that pace.

Many predict the economy could start growing in the third or fourth quarter as tax cuts and government spending on big public works projects included in President Barack Obama's $787 billion stimulus package take hold.

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