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It seems that investors are piling into emerging markets. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF [EEM
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] has surged about 50% since its March lows.
And it’s not just Fast Money that’s noticed the trend. Monday’s Wall Street Journal writes, “during the week ended May 6th investors plowed $4 billion into emerging market investment funds, the biggest week for the funds since late 2007.”
On the surface that sounds exciting. It would lead you to believe that global growth is getting back on track.
But all may not be what it appears. As CNBC’s Ariel Nelson so astutely points out on CNBC.com, “if history is any lesson it takes plenty of time to recover from big drops” – certainly more than 2 months which is what’s passed since the bear market low.
And that leads both the traders and the WSJ to ask the same set of questions. Is the trade overdone? Are investors too optimistic about overseas growth?
Tim Seymour says yes -- and no.
"What bothers me is that all emerging markets are being painted with the same brush," he says.
That shouldn't be the case, although Seymour does agree that the trade is overdone in some areas of the emerging world. "A lot of countries will not have a V-shaped recovery including Central Europe and Sub-Sahara Africa," he says.
But that's not the case everywhere. Not by a long shot.
Rather than rattle off a list of countries to avoid, Seymour prefers to focus on areas of opportunity.
“I like Brazil,” Seymour adds . Brazil based oil company Petrobras [PBR
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] is making major investments in capex. As a result Transocean [RIG
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], Schlumnberger [SLB
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], and Halliburton [HAL
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] all should benefit.
And if those trades don't float your boat -- Seymour has two more.
I also like Turkcell [TKC
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] and Mobile TeleSystems [MBT
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] , he adds, as consumer plays because as the middle class grows and becomes more affluent both companies should benefit.
Or keep an eye on Fluor [FLR
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] and McDermott [MDR
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], adds Pete Najarian. Those two firms are also plays on emerging markets.
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Trader disclosure: On May 11th, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (AGU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE), (BTU); Macke Owns (GE), (AGU), (AMZN), (APPL), (SDS), (IMAX), (WFC), (TGT); Seymour Owns (AAPL), (BAC), (C), (DRYJ), (EEM), (FCX), (PBR), (TSL); Seymour's Firm Owns (RIG); Najarian Owns (AMD) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (BX) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (CROX) Calls; Najarian Owns (FIG); Najarian Owns (INTC) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (MS) & (MS) Calls; Najarian Owns (PALM) & (PALM) Calls; Najarian OWns (XHB) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (XLB) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (XLU) Calls
Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes