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Beware the Bear Market Rally
Published:
Monday, 11 May 2009 | 10:18 AM ET
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By: Ariel Nelson
Director of Market Data & Content Services
Director of Market Data & Content Services
With the Dow [.DJIA
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], S&P 500 [.SPX
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] and NASDAQ [COMP
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] all up over 25% since their March lows, there has been a lot of talk
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Sure there is money to be made during these rallies, but proceed with caution. If history is any lesson, it takes plenty of time to recover from big drops. Last fall, there were comparisons made to the Great Depression. Back then, the market gave its best trap in history.
Crash of 1929
- Market peak -- the Dow hit 381.17 on 9/3/1929
- Market crash -- 10/28-29/1929, the Dow fell 23.6% over the two days going from 301 to 230
- Presumed low -- 11/13/1929, the Dow closed at 198.69, a fall of 47.9% from the September high
- Rally -- the Dow rallies to 294.07 or up 48% by April 17, 1930
- BEAR TRAP -- the Dow proceeds to plummet to 41.22 (yes, you read it correctly) by 7/8/1932, down 86% from the rally high of 1930 and down 89% from its 1929 high
- Recovery -- it took until November 1954 for the Dow to get back to its 1929 highs
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Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes
