Where to Find Top Yields - Investor Spring Cleaning 2009 - Special Report

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Where to Find Top Yields

Published: Friday, 15 May 2009 | 10:37 AM ET

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By: Jeffrey R. Kosnett

It's been an excruciating year for income hogs, their favorite investments obliterated by the recession and the credit crunch. Since September, high-yielding standbys such as real estate investment trusts, master limited partnerships, business-development companies, and oil-and-gas royalty trusts have lost 50% or more. Junk bonds and emerging-markets debt have improved of late, but they've still sustained double-digit losses.

From calamity, however, springs opportunity. Many income securities are now tantalizingly cheap. Moreover, issuers of high-yielding stocks and bonds are sure to benefit from reflation -- the stimulation of global economies through massive government spending and rock-bottom interest rates. Reflation, which implies higher inflation, will hurt low-yielding Treasury bonds, but it should boost the profits of energy producers, real estate operators and highly leveraged companies that need to raise prices to prosper.

The bear market in most income investments has resulted in lower cash payouts, too. With virtually all segments of the real estate sector suffering, dozens of REITs have cut their distributions, and many are paying dividends mainly in stock. Energy trusts have trimmed their disbursements because of low prices for oil, natural gas and other products. Led by financials, hundreds of companies have cut or suspended dividends on their common stock this year.

Credit-market chaos wreaked havoc with the recommendations in our previous "yieldfest" (see "8% or More", July 2008). Our best picks, emerging-markets bond funds such as Fidelity New Markets Income and Pimco Emerging Markets Bond, dropped about 10% over the past year through April 9. Pipeline stocks, such as Kinder Morgan Energy, also held up reasonably well. But we had our share of disasters. For example, First Industrial Realty Trust cratered by nearly 90%, while Genco Shipping & Trading dived 73%.

As the economy begins to improve, the rest of this year and 2010 will be much more rewarding for income seekers. From the safest to the riskiest, we offer our best bets for big cash returns over the coming year (of course, you should keep money that you'll need soon in supersafe instruments, such as money-market funds and bank accounts).
Municipal bonds.

The recession is putting pressure on state and local coffers, so why feel good about the prospects for municipal debt? Munis, which rarely default, are yielding far more than comparable Treasury securities. This state of affairs is an anomaly because interest from munis is generally free of federal income taxes. And because munis offer such generous yields, they should hold up far better than Treasuries when the economy and inflation pick up. Still, to be on the safe side, we recommend avoiding tax-free bonds with maturities greater than ten years. At ten years, you can still find 4% to 4.5%, tax-free. That's the equivalent of 6% or so from a taxable bond. Ten-year Treasuries, by contrast, yielded 2.9% in mid April.

Like most other sectors of the bond market, munis suffered last year, but confidence in them has improved. Despite California's budget disaster, the state sold $6.5 billion of general-obligation bonds in March, the third-largest muni issue ever. These A-rated bonds have already gained value. In mid April, a California GO maturing in 2019 with a coupon of 5.5% sold at $1,050 for each $1,000 of face value to yield 4.7% to maturity. For a Californian in the top income-tax bracket, that's like getting 8% from a taxable bond. And for the highest earners living elsewhere, it's the equivalent of 7.2% from a taxable bond.

Some discount brokers, such as Fidelity and Charles Schwab, offer scores of good-quality tax-exempt bonds supported by taxes or the revenues from water bills, highway tolls and the like. In mid April, a representative ten-year, double-A-rated, noncallable water-system bond, such as an Orlando utilities commission issue, yielded 4.8% to maturity. If you prefer a fund, Baird Intermediate Muni [BMBSX Loading... () ] was the top medium-maturity muni fund in both 2007 and 2008. Other standouts include Fidelity Intermediate Municipal Income [FLTMX Loading... () ], a member of the Kiplinger 25, and Schwab Tax-Free [SWNTX Loading... () ].

Ironclad mortgages

Toxic mortgages are the match that lit the financial firestorm, but you can't blame government-guaranteed loans from the Veterans Administration or the Federal Housing Administration. The VA foreclosure rate is 1.7%, compared with 13.7% for adjustable-rate subprime loans.

The best way to own these loans is through a Ginnie Mae fund. Backed by the full faith and credit of the federal government, the Government National Mortgage Association guarantees packages of FHA and VA debt bundled together by private lending institutions. From the perspective of timely repayment of principal and interest, Ginnie Maes are just as safe as Treasuries but deliver significantly more yield. And although mortgage rates have fallen, many GNMA funds still own lots of older, higher-paying loans. For example, almost 40% of the loans in Vanguard GNMA [VFIIX Loading... () ] carry yields of more than 6%.

Vanguard's fund and other low-cost Ginnie Mae funds, such as Payden GNMA [PYGNX Loading... () ] and Fidelity Ginnie Mae [FGMNX Loading... () ], still yield about 5%. GNMA yields should decline by half a percentage point by the end of 2009 because lower mortgage rates encourage more borrowers to refinance. But these securities will generate higher cash flows after mortgage rates, like other long-term rates, start to turn up later this year.

PERSONAL FINANCE FROM KIPLINGER

Bank-loan funds

These funds hold slices of adjustable-rate loans and lines of credit that banks extend to companies with junk credit ratings of single-B or double-B. Adviser Mark Gleason, of Wescap Management Group, in Burbank, Cal., aptly calls a bank-loan fund "a hybrid between a junk-bond fund and a money-market fund." The bank funds currently yield 4.5% to 6%, which is far short of junk's double-digit yields. But their loans are safer because their terms are short, their interest rates float with changes in short-term rates, and they are ahead of bonds on the repayment pecking order should the borrower default. However, like stocks and junk bonds, bank loans gain value prior to or in the early stages of an economic recovery. Year-to-date through April 9, bank-loan funds returned an average of 11.1%, tops among bond-fund categories.

By contrast, in the three-month period that ended last November, the average bank-loan fund lost 29% as the credit crunch and selling by hedge funds slashed the value of bank debt. But defaults didn't get out of hand, so funds such as Fidelity Floating-Rate High Income [FFRHX Loading... () ] and the closed-end PIMCO Floating Rate Strategy [PFN Loading... () ] kept up decent monthly distributions even as their share prices dropped. These payouts are sliding because short-term interest rates are near zero, but bank-loan funds still offer better yields than short-term-bond funds. Gleason sees annual total returns of 9% to 11% through 2012.