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The S&P 500 [.SPX
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] and Dow [.DJIA
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] both rose on Thursday as investors returned to financial and technology shares on bets the recent rally could have more room to grow after a brief pullback.
Volume, however, was light, a possible indication of a lack of broad conviction. We may be in the green but are we in the clear?
Strategy Session with the Fast Money Traders
I’m still not convinced that we’re going to snap back higher, muses Guy Adami. I think the S&P heads lower. The path of least resistance is down.
Other than fianncials the market closed fairly weak, adds Jeff Macke. Even IBM [IBM
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] couldn’t hold gains. We reached session highs mid-day and then we drifted lower.
I was encouraged to see the S&P bounce off 883, says Pete Najarian. I think it’s a good idea to keep an idea on the Vix [VIX
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]. Right now it’s pricing in a 16 point move on the S&P in either direction. Buckle your seatbelts.
To me it was an uneventful day, adds Karen Finerman. We need to see real economic data before the market can pick a direction.
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FINANCIALS LEAD THE REBOUND
Financial shares [XLF
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] led Thursday’s rebound with JPMorgan [JPM
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] and Bank of America [BAC
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]both making sizable gains. Bank stocks have been a large part of the recent rally as investors bet that the worst days for this sector are now over.
I’m long Wells Fargo [WFC
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] and I’m watching Goldman [GS
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] reveals Jeff Macke. But I’m not that excited about it.
When you consider all the secondaries that have gone on in this sector, I find it impressive the investors are still putting money down on these stocks, adds Pete Najarian. However I’d be cautious. Options expire on Friday and that removes some put protection which may have been putting a floor under the financials.
I’ve also been watching the secondaries closely, reveals Karen Finerman. If companies have more capital and as a result more time – then the short story isn’t nearly as compelling.
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NASDAQ THE BIG WINNER
Big-cap tech companies such as Apple [AAPL
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] led the Nasdaq [.NCOMP
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] higher on Tuesday with the semiconductor space [SMH
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] enjoying a lift after Bank of America-Merrill Lynch raised its rating and price target on shares of Novellus Systems [NVLS
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] citing cost cutting and attractive valuations. (Novellus provides equipment to the semiconductor industry.)
I’ve been watching Intel [INTC
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], reminds Guy Adami. It keeps bouncing off $15. And I like IBM [IBM
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] between $98-$100.
IBM concerns me, counters Jeff Macke. The stock has rallied about 50% from its lows and now it keeps running into resistance at $100. Let’s see which way it breaks.
If I jumped into IBM I’d only do it with puts, adds Pete Najarian. Protect yourself.
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CONSUMER NAMES REBOUND
Defensive stocks such as consumer staples [XLP
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] also powered higher on Tuesday suggesting that at least some worry about the economy still lingers on Wall Street. Shares of Coca-Cola [KO
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] were among the Dow's biggest gainers.
I’m keeping my eye on Nordstrom [JWN
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], reveals Jeff Macke. They’re up after hours now let’s see if they can hold the level.
I know investors bid Wal-Mart [WMT
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] lower on earnings, but I like it at current valuations, reveals Karen Finerman.
If you see Best Buy [BBY
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] pulling back toward $30 I think it starts to get attractive, adds Pete Najarian.
Meanwhile, Sony [SNE
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] forecast a second straight year of losses as the global recession batters demand for consumer electronics but the Japanese company stopped short of taking any new aggressive steps to cut costs further.
I’d avoid Sony at all costs, says Jeff Macke.
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TOPPING THE TAPE: AG STOCKS TAKING OFF
Agriculture stocks including Potash [POT
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] closed higher after the firm’s CEO said on CNBC, “We think that agriculture is going to lead the way out of this recession, on a global basis.”
I don’t see any other sector saying agriculture is going to lead us out of this recession other than agriculture, chuckles Karen Finerman.
I think Agrium [AGU
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] and Mosaic [MOS
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] are both buys, says Jeff Macke. These stocks have spent a lot of time consolidating and now I love this space.
But some of these stocks have had a monster runs already, reminds Guy Adami. I think you’ll run into resistance in Potash is $116.75.
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Trader disclosure: On May 14th, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Macke Owns (AGU), (F), (AAPL), (MGM), (NFLX), (GE), (SKF), (SDS), (WFC); Adami Owns (AGU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE), (BTU); Finerman's Firm Owns (CSCO), (PBR), (RIG), (UNH), (WFC); Najarian Owns (AMD) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (BX) Calls; Najarian Owns (CROX) Calls; Najarian Owns (INTC) Calls; Najarian Owns (MS) & (MS) Calls; Najarian Owns (MOS) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (PALM) & (PALM) Calls; Najarian OWns (XHB) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (XLB) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (XLU) Calls
CNBC.com with wires
Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes
