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Forget the V-Shaped Recovery: Experts
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CNBC.com Writer
Market experts Alan Gayle, senior investment strategist at RidgeWorth Capital Management, and Kevin Giddis, managing director at Morgan Keegan, both said the economy has seen its bottom, but it will take a while before a real turnaround.
“This recovery is not going to look like a ‘V,’ but a three-year-old drawing a bad 'U,'” Giddis told CNBC. “It’s going to take until part of 2010 before we see a significant turn in this economy. It’s going to take a long time.”
“I think the evidence according to various economic data suggests that the worst seems to be over,” said Gayle. “The only question now is which companies are going to thrive.”
Giddis and Gayle also agreed that China’s relationship with the United States will be important.
“Our exports [to China] are the biggest part of our future economy,” said Giddis. “It’s going to be highly important for us to produce the goods that are attractive as an export. At the same time, we need China and Japan to buy our Treasurys to support the amount of debt we’re going to have to fund.”
“One of the issues we’re going to face is deleveraging consumers,” said Gayle. “We need to be looking at durable goods spending at 8 to 10 percent of overall consumption. And that means we’re going to have some deleveraging and downward pressure on consumers going forward. So we need those exports.”
Disclosure:
No immediate information was available for Giddis or Gayle.
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