Market Insider
- Europe Has Wall Street's Bull on a Short Leash
- Hostage to Headlines
- Traders Worry Over 'Possible Risks' During Long Weekend
- Oil Declines, but Doesn't Help European Consumers
- Facebook Analyst Reports All Over the Map
- More Fallout From the Facebook Fiasco
- Stocks to Watch: CHK, PAY, FB, MS & More
- Facebook and Morgan Stanley's 99 Problems
- Markets Could End Week Quietly
- Stocks to Watch: CHK, PAY & More
EDITOR
RSS FEED
Week Ahead: Stocks Could Be in for Choppy Seas
Text Size 
CNBC Executive News Editor
Those Fed minutes top the list of economic reports in the coming week. There is also housing starts data Tuesday, and the National Association of Home Builders survey, released Monday. The Philadelphia Fed survey is Thursday, as are leading indicators. Weekly jobless claims are also reported Thursday.
"I think you're going to see the Fed sound more optimistic. The Fed is going to follow the equity market like everybody else. It will be less doom and gloom than it was in March," said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank.
In terms of data this week, "the only thing we're looking for is a bounce in housing starts because they are extremely depressed, and then I would say just watch for the jobless claims numbers which are going to be around 640,000." he said.
LaVorgna said the main focus for the Treasury market will be the stock market. "The equity market is pretty much driving everything. It's driving all of the sentiment indexes...It's helping keep spreads in as they've rallied a lot. Everything has been an equity trade," he said.
"There's a little bit of circularity here. The longer the equity market stays up 35 percent from its low, the more likely the economy does better, and it's more likely the equity market doesn't go back down," he said. The risk to the stock market is that the recovery will not be as robust as investors think it will be.
"Do you get a sharp cyclical type of recovery? Our view is that's not the case, but that's what the market is trying to figure out," he said.
The Risk Trade
In the past week, the dollar gained a percent against the euro [EUR-TN
Loading...
()
] but it lost 3.4 percent against the yen [JPY-TN
Loading...
()
].
"The price action suggests the risk rally has ended, and we're likely to see further weakness in the risky assets, basically stocks and yen crosses. You could throw commodities in there too," said Brian Dolan, chief strategist at Forex.com.
Dolan expects the dollar to gain some traction in the week ahead but at the same time, other assets will move lower or sideways. "It's pretty quiet out there on the data front, and unfortunately basically the momentum has fallen out and there's not going to be a lot of new juice coming in," he said.
Dolan said there are a few pieces of foreign data worth watching. A major German sentiment survey is released Tuesday, and Eurozone purchasing managers data is released Thursday.
Earnings Central
There are just a few companies reporting in the week ahead, as the earnings season winds down. A group of retailers report, starting with Lowe's Monday, then Home Depot [HD
Loading...
()
], TJX and Saks Tuesday. Target [TGT
Loading...
()
], B.J.'s Wholesale, PetSmart, Limited Brands and Ann Taylor are out Wednesday. Ross Stores, Gap, Gamestop and Aeropostale report Thursday. (Get more earnings updates below the quotes box.)
There are a few others reporting as well. Hewlett-Packard [HP
Loading...
()
] reports Tuesday, as does Medtronic and Analog Devices. On Wednesday, Toll Brothers, Deere, Computer Sciences, Intuit and NetApp release results. Suntech Power reports Thursday, and Campbell Soup reports Friday. (See what else to watch below the quote box.)
What Else to Watch
President Obama Monday meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Also that day, the House Energy and Commerce committee begins marking up its clean energy bill, which includes cap and trade provisions.
Geithner testifies Wednesday before the Senate Banking Committee on the Troubled Asset Relief Program.
Questions? Comments?
- The Nasdaq has suffered the most from the EU crisis showing there's risk in the usual tech stocks.
- Targeting more Millennials is just one of the items brewing for consumers in the world of spirits.
- It seems many people may need a reminder of how NOT to act on a plane. Here are a few tips.
- Here are some very unusual roadside stops along American highways that might peek your interest.
- How three generations of Americans are dealing with the finances of retirement.
Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes
