Market Insider

Published: Friday, 15 May 2009 | 8:09 PM ET

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Expect choppy seas for stocks in the coming week.

For the most part, traders say the market should bump along with a downward bias while it establishes a new trading range. The lack of economic news and earnings reports in the coming week leaves a news vacuum, and the market will be looking for catalysts.

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Minutes from the last Fed meeting, and the Fed's economic forecast are released Wednesday. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner testifies Wednesday before Congress on the TARP, and there are a few economic reports, including housing starts and leading indicators. Dow components Home Depot and Hewlett-Packard are among the few companies reporting earnings in the week ahead.

Oliver Quillia for CNBC.com Inside the New York Stock Exchange.

Stocks staged their worst weekly decline since March 6. The Dow was down 306 points, or 3.6 percent to 8268, and the S&P 500 fell 46 points, nearly 5 percent, to 882. The Nasdaq had its first down week in 10, losing 3.4 percent to 1680.

The dollar, meanwhile firmed at the end of the week, and Treasurys saw a gain for the week, as the Fed continued its bond purchases. The 10-year's yield, at 3.125 percent, was below the week-earlier high yield of just under 3.30 percent.

"The push and pull on this market right now is amazing. You have one camp of people who are talking about increasingly positive economic data, and we're getting a lot of (stock) deals done in a short amount of time. There's a lot of positive elements out there. But the bearish argument is we were just up 37 percent and we're still not out of the woods," said Art Hogan of Jefferies.

"There's a bit of common sense here to have a retracement. You want to pull back a little bit. The guys that led the parade are the financials, and they have a lot of new offerings coming out," said Hogan. Hogan noted that the recent $40 billion in secondary offerings, many issued by banks raising capital, is a record for the month of May.

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Brown Brothers Harriman's Brian Rauscher turned bullish in early March and is still bullish now, but he admits he expects it to be only temporary. "We're still in the same bear market rally. Could we go down? Have we seen the low for the correction within the bear market rally? That's hard to say. The bigger point is I still think there's higher highs out there. We're recommending clients to still buy the dip," he said.

"It's playing the course of a bear market rally. The gravy part of the rally I think is over. We will now go through the grind it up phase and it will go higher, and it's yet to be seen if it goes three more weeks or three more months.. I don't think we get much through (S&P) 1,000 which is the upper edge of our target," he said.

Traders are watching several key levels on the S&Ps. The next level of support is in the 875 to 878 range. If that level fails, it could slip to the next level of 850 to 855. Many say the market may not be able to break above recent highs until there are real signs of economic improvement, not just "less" bad data.

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The coming week's lack of news could pose problems for stocks. "Right now, the market needs reasons to go up, and every time we get something that's second derivative positive, the market acts better. A quiet calendar, in my personal view, makes it challenging for the market," Rauscher said.

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