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The bears seized control of the stock market on Wednesday; and intense selling into the close left both the Dow [.DJIA
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] and S&P [.SPX
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] in the red for the day.
Negative sentiment was fueled by the Federal Reserve, which cut its 2009 forecast for gross domestic product and raised its outlook for unemployment; tempering the recent optimism that the economy might be turning the corner.
How should you be positioned?
Strategy Session with the Fast Money Traders
I still think the next move is lower, counsels Guy Adami. We had a big rally earlier in the day and the market gave the gains back.
This is what a consolidating market looks like, explains Joe Terranova. It looks like summer on the Street.
The Vix [VIX
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] seems like it’s getting too cheap because there’s still volatility in this market, muses Pete Najarian.
The trade was to sell the rip, counsels Jeff Macke. Personally, I sold my Agrium [AGU
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] stock.
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COMMODITIES ROCKIN’
U.S. crude [US@CL.1
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] inventories fell last week for the second straight time as imports remained low while gasoline supplies dropped much more than expected, the Energy Information Administration said in weekly data released Wednesday.
The data sent oil bulls off and running with geo-political concerns in Nigeria adding to the bullish sentiment.
Meanwhile, commodities in general surged higher with the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index hitting a 6 month high.
Other May Milestones:
Oil: 6 mo high
Gasoline: 7 mo high
Gold: 2 mo high
Wheat: 5 mo high
Oil over $50 is a good thing it shows global growth but over $60 is an issue, muses Pete Najarian. That starts hitting people in their wallets.
What's the commodities trade?
In the ag stocks, I think you can get long Agrium [AGU
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] and I’d be taking profits in Potash [POT
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].
Gold miners Barrick [ABX
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] and Newmont [NEM
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] held their gains on Wednesday, adds Tim Seymour. I really like their charts.
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FINANCIALS LEAVE THE PARTY
Financial shares [XLF
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] had led the market higher in morning trading after a successful share offering from Bank of America [BAC
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] boosted optimism about the sector, but they reversed course as investors booked profits. Shares of Goldman Sachs [GS
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] and JPMorgan [JPM
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] were among the sector’s biggest losers.
If you’re long Bank of America book your gains, exclaims Jeff Macke.
If you’re buying financials here as an initiation trade, you’re dead wrong, adds Guy Adami. If you’re looking for a long trade put Jefferies on your radar. Don’t chase it but there’s clearly something going on there.
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TARGET CAN'T PULL RETAIL HIGHER
Target [TGT
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] reported a better-than-expected quarterly profit on Wednesday, as the No 2 U.S. discount retailer offset sluggish sales by keeping a tight control on inventory and expenses, while its credit card business was profitable.
Nonetheless, the positive news couldn’t lift the broad sector and the Retail HLDRs [RTH
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] closed lower for the day.
I think Target is a great company but the stock has probably run too far, counsels Jeff Macke. It’s a great company but they have to resolve their issues with Bill Ackman.
I wouldn’t buy the stock either hoping for a breakout above $45, adds Guiy Adami.
I would expect to see a pullback, adds Pete Najarian.
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TECH CAN'T SHAKE-OFF H-P SLIDE
Technology shares [XLK
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] were also a negative after Hewlett Packard [HPQ
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], the world's biggest PC maker. tempered its outlook for 2009. H-P was the biggest drag on the Dow.
Meanwhile Microsoft [MSFT
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] bucked the trend and closed higher after the WSJ reported the company is likely to show a new version of its Internet search engine publicly for the first time next week.
In the sector I’m watching NTAP [NTAP
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], says Pete Najarian. They’re doing an acquisition when The Street had thought they were a target.
I’ve got my eye on Red Hat [
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], counsels Guy Adami. Something is going on there.
I sold my Apple [AAPL
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] down to 100 shares, adds Jeff Macke. I think Apple is rolling over.
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ARE STOCKS SIGNALING AN ECONOMIC RECOVERY?
Minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting released Wednesday show the central bank expects the economy to improve in the coming months.
Are stocks signaling an economic recovery? See what CNBC's Steve Liesman has to say. Watch the video above.
Read More:
>Be Afraid, Be Very Afraid
> Fed Sees Economy Improving But Still Cuts Outlook: Minutes
- Your First Move For Monday November 16th
- Web Extra: Where Will The Next Bull Come From?
- Burned by Yahoo!, Disney and More
- The Latest Picks That Paid – Friday November 13th
- Pops & Drops: Dow Chemical, Macy's...
- Chartology – Can Stocks Break Above 1100?
- Fast Action: Using Options To Play Housing Bottom
- Bold Call Of The Day – Microsoft
- Hold 'Em Or Fold 'Em
- Off The Record w/ Charlie Gasparino: Bank of America
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Trader disclosure: On May 20th, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Macke Owns (AGU), (F), (SKF), (SDS); Adami Owns (AGU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE), (BTU); Terranova Owns (ABT), (TER), (JOYG), (XBI), (X), (HES); Terranova Owns Oil Futures;p Terranova Owns Nat Gas Futures; Terranova Owns (DIS) Calls; Terranova Owns (XOM) Calls; Terranova Owns June Gold Futures; Najarian Owns (ISIS); Najarian Owns (APC) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (BBY) Put Spread; Najarian Owns (BX) Calls; Najarian Owns (INTC) Calls; Najarian Owns (MOS) Call Spread; Najarian OWns (XHB) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (XLB) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (XLU) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (PCU) Calls
Syemour Owns (FCX), (EEM), (PBR), (RIO)
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