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Take Your Position: Dell

Dell reports its fiscal first-quarter results after the market closes Thursday. How should you be positioned into the results?

It seems Michael Dell and company are facing some blustery headwinds – to say the least. According to research groups, PC shipments sank about 7 percent worldwide in the first three months of the year.

Also Dell lost the top spot as our nation’s number one computer maker to Hewlett-Packard.

Ontop of that, this time of year is seasonally slow for Dell. Its busiest times are the back-to-school and holiday shopping months.

What should you expect?

On average, analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect Dell to post a profit of 23 cents per share on $12.7 billion in revenue.

Kaufman Bros. analyst Shaw Wu cut his quarterly estimates for Dell last week. In a note to clients, he wrote that Dell was hurt by its reliance on business customers, which continue to struggle with the economic crisis.

Doug Reid, a Thomas Weisel analyst, is also somewhat bearish. He wrote in a May 18 note that he believes Dell laptop demand fell 10 percent to 15 percent from a year ago based on commentary from one of the PC maker's notebook manufacturers.

What’s the trade?

I love the stock but I don’t see a growth driver for Dell, counsels Pete Najarian. Instead, I think the trade is the company that’s winning share away from Dell – and that’s Hewlett Packard.

I’m hearing that all the bad news in Dell is out already, counters Steve Grasso. I think we know all the negatives and the risk of being long Dell is limited.

In the space I’m long IBM, adds Joe Terranova.



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Trader disclosure: On May 27th, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (AGU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE), (BTU); Terranova Owns (ABT), (TER), (XBI), (RIMM), (IBM); Terranova Is Short (XOM) Call Spread; Terranova Owns (DIS) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (ISIS); Najarian Owns (AMAT) Calls; Najarian Owns (BX) Call Spread, (INTC) Call Spread, (MOS) Call Spread, (XHB) Call Spread, (XLB) Call Spread, (XLU) Call Spread; Grasso Owns (V), (XLF), (RIMM), (AMZN); Grasso's Firm Owns (MSFT); Grasso's Clients Owns (JPM), (OXY), (AMR), (V)

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