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According to the National Association for Business Economics more than 90 percent of economists predict the recession will end this year, although the recovery is likely to be bumpy.
About 74 percent of the forecasters expect the recession — which started in December 2007 and is the longest since World War II — to end in the third quarter. Another 19 percent predict the turning point will come in the final three months of this year, and the remaining 7 percent believe the recession will end in the first quarter of 2010.
But even as the NABE forecasters believe the country will emerge from recession later this year, they also predict the economy's overall performance in 2009 will be rotten.
The economy should contract by 2.8 percent this year, the forecasters said in updated projections. That's worse than the 1.9 percent drop they forecast in late February. If they are right, it would mark the worst annual contraction since 1946, when economic activity fell by 11 percent.
Still, the forecasters believe the worst is already behind the country in terms of lost economic activity.
What’s the trade?
We won’t know the recession is over – until it’s long over, explains Zach Karabell of RiverTwice. Don’t wait for the NABE to call it; that will be too late.
Summer should be a good time to get into stocks. I think we have a summer lull between 7700 and 8500 in the Dow, he counsels. If and when that happens, I think it’s a good time to establish some long positions. Look at capital goods stocks such as United Technologies [UTX
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And in case you're wondering, Karabell is putting his money where his mouth is. He's long both names.
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Trader disclosure: On May 27th, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (AGU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE), (BTU); Terranova Owns (ABT), (TER), (XBI), (RIMM), (IBM); Terranova Is Short (XOM) Call Spread; Terranova Owns (DIS) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (ISIS); Najarian Owns (AMAT) Calls; Najarian Owns (BX) Call Spread, (INTC) Call Spread, (MOS) Call Spread, (XHB) Call Spread, (XLB) Call Spread, (XLU) Call Spread; Grasso Owns (V), (XLF), (RIMM), (AMZN); Grasso's Firm Owns (MSFT); Grasso's Clients Owns (JPM), (OXY), (AMR), (V)
Zach Karabell Owns Manitowoc (MTW)
Zach Karabell Owns United Technologies (UTX)
Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes