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It seems this question – more than any other – is the burning question on the minds of most Americans looking to make a move.
And that question is – has the housing market bottomed?
A pickup in U.S. home sales has kindled hopes for a housing recovery, but plunging prices, rising unemployment and a new wave of foreclosures are clouding prospects for a quick end to the American real estate debacle.
"We're not at the bottom and anybody that's trying to call the bottom right now is crazy," says Jack McCabe, a real estate consultant based in Deerfield Beach, Florida.
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"There's a huge foreclosure wave still ahead in the next 12-18 months and still a lot of excess inventory," he says.
Housing is at the heart of the 17-month-old U.S. recession and is key to a turnaround in the broader economy.
Optimistic observers have been talking about a real estate market strengthening as investors jump in to hunt for bargains.
But upbeat talk is undermined by data like the latest S&P Case-Shiller home price index, which recorded a 19.1 percent drop in the first-quarter compared to the same year ago period. It was the biggest decline in the index's 21-year history.
So, if you’re in the market for a new house should you take the plunge now?
According to Chris Thornberg, principal at Beacon Economics although the housing market will probably bottom this summer, it’s okay to wait. He tells Fast Money “housing markets don’t bounce they splat.” In other words, don’t feel you have to rush in or you’ll miss the train.
This train isn’t leaving anytime soon -- time is on your side. “First we need a couple years of stabilization,” he explains. “Then we can have a recovery.”
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Trader disclosure: On May 28th, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Finerman Owns (RIG); Finerman;s Firm Owns (RIG), (PBR), (TBT); Finerman's Firm Owns (BAC) Preferred, (WFC) Prefereed; Adami Owns (AGU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE), (BTU); Terranova Owns (ABT), (TER), (HES), (JPM), (JOYG), (XBI), (RIMM); Terranova Is Short (XOM) Call Spread; Terranova Owns (DIS) Call Spread; Terranova Owns July Nat Gas Futures; Najarian Owns (ISIS); Najarian Owns (AMAT) Calls; Najarian Owns (FCX) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (BX) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (INTC) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (MOS) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (XHB) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (XLB) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (XLU) Call Spread
CNBC.com with wires
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